I famosi Price/Earnings (arrotondati qui per le ciclicita' del medio periodo) delle imprese quotate nelle borse americane a livelli del 1929... no, vabbe', dai, cosa mai dovrebbe andare storto? Ottimismo! Ottimismo! Compra Mortimer! Compra!
Simon Black si domanda "cosa sara' che sanno gli amministratori delegati delle grandi imprese USA, che non comprano piu' azioni delle loro stesse corporations?"
The US stock market is hopelessly overvalued.
By nearly every objective metric, US stocks are ridiculously expensive.
The average Price/Earnings ratio across the S&P 500 exceeds 26.5; there have been exactly TWO times in the last century when the ratio was higher: the 2000 dot-com bust, and the 2008 crash.
Similarly, the Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio (or CAPE, which smooths out earnings over a 10-year period) has only been higher two other times in history– during the 2000 dot-com bust, and in 1929 just prior to the Great Depression.
There are dozens of other indicators.
Company “insiders”, i.e. senior managers and directors of large corporations, must file a public disclosure every time they buy and sell shares of their companies.
It’s usually a good sign when the CEO of a major company is buying shares; s/he is an insider and knows what’s going on, so their confidence is a positive sign.
Well, according to public data filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, insider buying is at its LOWEST level in THREE DECADES.
In other words, the people at the top of the corporate food chain who have privileged information about their businesses are NOT buying.
(What do these CEOs know that we don’t?)
leggi tutto QUI
L'ottimismo, Gianni! L'ottimismo! To the moon!