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lunedì 13 marzo 2017

Armstrong: L'euro e il rimbalzo

L'idea di fondo e' che l'ultimo a cadere sara' il Dollaro .. un po' come anche che il petrolio "finira'" e idem oro e poi argento ... ma questi sono i megatrend storici - si parla probabilmente di decenni - nel mentre, nel medio termine e ancor di piu' ne breve ne possono succedere. Come per esempio che l'euro ora risalga (leggevo che pare che Draghi abbia buttato li di un futuro rialzo dei tassi BCE...)

Armstrong Economics - The Euro & the Pending Bounce
(...) So we should expect dire headlines about how the USA will default and all this may provide a bounce for the Euro for up to two months until the French elections on May 7th. 
Keep in mind, this is a slow and agonizing process that cannot be stopped. 
The economic and politics of Europe are a total disaster because politicians now make decision to protect their jobs and pensions from Brussels. 
There is traditionally the false move that get people off-side so we should bounce before we collapse.

Armstrong parla di come il dibattito sull'ennesimo rialzo del "tetto al debito", il Debt Ceiling in USA potra' portare nel breve l'euro a salire ... ma solo sino al 7 maggio, data delle elezioni in Francia. L'UE per Armstrong e' spacciata, e questa dell'euro potrebbe essere la classica "falsa mossa" prima del collasso, quella che porta tutti a sbilanciarsi alimentando in questo modo ulteriormente il collasso.

The key resistance will be 10855 and a weekly closing above that level will point to a rally back to the 11050 area and a monthly closing above that would then point to 112-115 level. 
March needs to close above 11300 on a pure technical perspective to raise any hope of a more prolonged rally beyond 2 months.

Resistenza a 1,0855 ed una chiusura sopra potrebbe portare a 1,1050 circa. Se si chiude un mese sopra quel livello anche sino a 1,120-1,15. Per poter credere che la mossa sia piu' seria e duri piu' di 2 mesi bisogna chiudere marzo sopra 1,13.


3 commenti:

  1. Sono abbastanza protetto, però se l'euro tenesse ancora per un po' sarebbe meglio, mi è rimasto ancora qualcosa che mi dispiacerebbe convertire adesso.

    RispondiElimina
    Risposte
    1. Dai, non crolla domani. Poi 1,12 o 1,15 non e' tutto sto che (Rispetto agli 1,40 ed oltre degli anni "d'oro"...)

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    2. Research Team at Deutsche Bank analyses that how much the euro and its legacy currencies would weaken in the event of a Eurozone break-up.

      Key Quotes

      “Under conservative assumptions we calculate that EUR/USD would fall by 25-30% to 80-75cents just before break-up. Some legacy currencies could fall by an additional 40% after the event.”

      “The defining event of a Eurozone break-up would be a capping or outright suspension of cross-border Target 2 payments. However, the ECB would be unlikely to do this without political validation.”

      “Four things would drive the euro and its legacy currencies in the event of a break-up. First, the need to correct existing valuation misalignments. We find these to be small. Second, large-scale capital flight as the euro loses its reserve status. Third, a large negative productivity shock across the Euro-area. Fourth, a large inflation shock in the periphery as central bank credibility is lost. The euro’s only silver lining is that the Fed has much greater space than the ECB to ease monetary policy. This would offset part of euro weakness.”

      “Using a capital flows approach we argue that EUR/USD would drop by 30% pre-breakup assuming reserve re-allocation. Our assumption is very conservative because we don’t assume private capital flight. Using an alternative valuation framework we estimate that the euro’s fair value would decline by a similar 30% to account for negative productivity and inflation shocks. A powerful Fed response could provide an offset of 5-10%.”

      “Even though some legacy currencies such as the Deutschmark could end up appreciating after break-up, it is unlikely the cumulative effect of break-up is positive. All currencies would end up weakening versus current “shadow” exchange rates against the dollar. This would range from 15% in Germany to 70% in Portugal. Our estimates are highly sensitive to the degree of capital outflows as well as to the size of the productivity and inflation shocks that materialize.”

      http://linkis.com/www.fxstreet.com/new/aiD8M

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