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martedì 20 settembre 2016

Durden: Lo Steve Eisman de The Big Short rivela quale sara' la prossima grande scommessa al ribasso


Questo tipo e' Steve Eisman, quello che ne The Big Short (la grande scommessa) era interpretato da questo attore:




Che dice ora? Non pare che voglia dire molto, tutti ovviamente cercano la dritta sul prossimo grande short, la prossima grande scommessa al ribasso.. dai Tylers:



On Quantitative Easing. 
“QE is no more than monetary policy for rich people,” the money manager quipped. He said that central banks “use QE to go out the risk curve, so people invest in the stock market, but it does not impact the economy.  Most people do not invest in the stock market, they invest in banks [they are saving more] and banks don’t pay interest on their money.” 
From a corporate perspective, GDP is lower than pre-crisis, if you buy back stock you get a return on your investment that’s fairly certain, or build a new factory, where the return is uncertain. In a zero interest rate environment, you’ll choose the more certain reward. Very low interest rates have a negative signaling effect. A lot of people think something has to be wrong. 
On GSE Market Share 
“I’m about as left-wing as they come. Obamacare does not bother me. GSE dominance [of the mortgage market] does.” “The reason that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to dominate the mortgage market is the federal government decided not to put people in jail. Instead it fined banks. Banks don’t want to get fined, so they don’t make [nonconforming] mortgages.”

Dice che il QE serve ai ricchi, ai money managers (ma va?) e che la gente non sta investendo nel mercato azionario ma nelle banche: tenendo i tuoi soldi in banca in pratica e' come se stessi investendo nella tua banca (della serie adotta un neurone ;D) e fra l'altro queste stesse banche gli stanno dando interessi zero quindi proprio una drittonata ...
“In 2007, I’m so happy I can’t stand it. But in 2008, it was planet earth [in trouble]. I told someone I felt like Noah … do you think Noah was happy?” 
Asked to name the next big short, Eisman initially declined. “I’m not in such a rush to do it again,” he said. “It took years off my life.” Then he relented, saying, “The only big short out there is when the world loses confidence in QE.”

"Il solo grande short che c'e' ora e' quando il mondo perdera' fiducia nei QE" (leggi anche nelle banche centrali, divinita' della nostra epoca) .

I Tylers provano a dare la loro interpretazione.. come scommettere quindi in questa direzione, che strumento usare?



Predictably, Eisman did not offer any ideas on how to profit when his prediction is - again - proven to be right, since the collapse of the central bank model will mean all fiat-denominated conventional finance as we know it will come to an end, and force the world to revert to "traditional" hard assets, such as gold.


Il collasso del modello delle banche centrali significhera' la fine della finanza in denaro fiat e il mondo dovra' tornare ad asset piu' tradizionali .. tipo l'oro. Ipse dixit, Tyler dixit ;)

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