Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

martedì 17 maggio 2016

Motley Fool: Occhio! BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto e Glencore potrebbero essere sul punto di schiantarsi


Motley Fool - Hold on tight! BHP Billiton plc, Rio Tinto plc and Glencore plc could be about to crash!
Even though we’re less than halfway through 2016, this year is already shaping up to be one of the most bizarre on record for commodity traders.  
At the beginning of 2016, it looked as if the commodity markets were set for another year of poor returns. Many key commodity markets were oversupplied, and China’s lacklustre outlook for growth didn’t suggest that demand would pick up anytime soon.  
However in February, commodity prices started rising across the board for no apparent reason. The rally continued into April and reached fever pitch at the end of the month when enough cotton was traded in a single day to make over 7bn pairs of jeans while the price of iron ore spiked to a high of $70 a ton, up from $38.30 in December. In fact, the total value of iron ore futures traded in China during April hit $330bn, roughly four times the amount spent trading physical iron ore internationally in a year.  
It turns out China’s legions of private investors were behind this sudden surge in demand for commodities, and it looks as if the bubble has now burst. The price of iron ore has since fallen back to $55, and cotton prices have also come off their highs. (...)

Molto semplice la loro tesi: Le commodities e i loro prezzi si sono schiantate ma negli ultimi mesi sono notevolmente risalite... ma solo sulla scia della speculazione dei cinesi, che pero' ora pare si stia smorzando e non poco. I prezzi quindi ricrolleranno e i colosssi delle commodities minerarie li seguiranno. 

Vedremo. Direi che sicuramente hanno un punto ma mi domando quanto potranno rischiantarsi visto che forse (forse) hanno gia' scontato una bella raffica di schiaffoni nell'ultimo anno/anno e mezzo e magari i minimi che abbiamo visto fra dicembre e gennajo erano gia' eccessivetti. Mah!

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