Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

giovedì 28 aprile 2016

Sprott Money - L'argento che riprende un po' del terreno perso rispetto all'oro


Sprott Money - Gold and Silver Update 
(...) It doesn’t look like much on the five-year chart, but silver seems to have carved out a bottom. It is up 21% this year, making it the best-performing metal.

And silver has more ground to regain. Gold may have lost 45% in the bear market, but silver lost more than 70%.

The fact that silver is moving now matters. Silver never moves lock step with gold. When uncertainty prompts investors to seek out safe havens, they look to gold long before silver because gold is a far more straightforward safe haven. Silver, by contrast, is also an industrial metal, which means demand waxes and wanes more with economic demand.

However, after some time silver’s safe haven status starts to catch up. And once it starts to look like a safe haven, it acts increasingly so. That process usually starts when gold is consolidating its first big move and preparing to take out its next resistance.

In other words: we’re seeing gold consolidate, which gives confidence in the new price range, and gold is trailing gold equities, which is precisely the pattern we see to start new bull markets. Silver’s recent move only confirms the pattern.

The fact that silver is moving now matters. Silver never moves lock step with gold. When uncertainty prompts investors to seek out safe havens, they look to gold long before silver because gold is a far more straightforward safe haven. Silver, by contrast, is also an industrial metal, which means demand waxes and wanes more with economic demand.

However, after some time silver’s safe haven status starts to catch up. And once it starts to look like a safe haven, it acts increasingly so. That process usually starts when gold is consolidating its first big move and preparing to take out its next resistance.

In other words: we’re seeing gold consolidate, which gives confidence in the new price range, and gold is trailing gold equities, which is precisely the pattern we see to start new bull markets. Silver’s recent move only confirms the pattern.

Explorers, miners, and resource investors have been waiting for this pattern to emerge for years. With evidence of a new bull market mounting, they are getting busy.

Here’s a good comparison: in the fourth quarter of last year, miners and explorers raised a measly $565 million. The average placement totaled just $3.3 million.

In the first quarter of this year, the sector has raised $3.5 billion and the average size rose to $23 million.
That’s a massive change. Granted, a few huge raises tipped the scale, including Franco Nevada’s $1 billion, Silver Wheaton’s $623 million, and Goldcorp’s $250 million. (...) 

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