Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

martedì 19 aprile 2016

Hubba: Speculative Gold Longs Have Increased Their Positions To The Highest Levels Since August Of 2011

Hubba qualche gg fa:


Seeking Alpha - Speculative Gold Longs Have Increased Their Positions To The Highest Levels Since August Of 2011 - What Does This Mean For The Gold Market? 
(...) Our Take and What This Means For Investors  
In our opinion, this isn't exactly ideal in terms of gold being a contrarian investment as speculative longs have significant positions already in gold and, thus, it's extremely crowded. In fact, in terms of speculative longs, it's the most crowded that we have seen since the gold peak of August 2011.

We don't like this and, thus, we are extremely cautious in our gold positions as we prefer to wait on the sidelines as we see the gold market a bit frothy right now despite its technical strength.

We do not want to abandon gold positions completely because we remain extremely bullish in the long term (3-5 years) on gold. As we wrote previously, gold reserves for the major miners are declining, and the cuts in exploration budgets over the past few years and the devastation in junior explorers means that we see no reason for reserves to jump until we see a much higher gold price.


Sono un po' sul chi vive, non gli piace come il mercato si sia affollato, e troppo, di recente. Comunque non escono completamente dall'oro visto che sono estremamente rialzisti (bullish ;D) nel lungo periodo (3-4 anni). Come vi ho detto alla nausea pure io in questi ultimi 2 anni anche loro ripetono che: 

1) le riserve auree delle maggiori compagnie minerarie sono in declino, in calo. 

2) i tagli degli ultimi anni alle spese per esplorazioni sono state devastanti per i miners minori (e spesso i junior, se di successo, vengono poi comprati dai big per rimpolpare il proprio portafoglio di miniere man nano che quelle possedute si esauriscono o calano di produzione)
3) quindi non si vede perche' le riserve dovrebbero aumentare nei prossimi anni (non parano di picco di sempre dell'oro ma di picco relativo sicuramente)
4) aggiungo io: se la domanda non cala (anzi) allora ... 

Right now we recommend investors deal with this investment environment by lowering risk and taking profits while waiting for speculative long liquidations, more chaos in the financial markets, or a drop in gold prices. Thus, we are holding off on increasing gold positions in ETFs and miners such as the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SGOL), Tahoe Resources (TAHO) and Randgold (GOLD) - we are waiting for a better entry point that we think will come over the next few months. 
But we are certainly not out of the gold market and remain firm in our core gold and silver positions as we see a bright future for the precious metals moving forward.

Disclosure: I am/we are long SGOL

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