Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

martedì 9 febbraio 2016

St.Angelo: Dati scientifici sul calcolo della produzione mondiale totale d'oro dall'alba dei tempi ad oggi


Gira per la rete, in inglese, una vulgata che vuole che al mondo ci siano 2 milioni di tonnellate d'oro, accumulate dall'alba dei tempi e sino a jeri, e non le 170.000 tonnellate circa a cui siamo abituati a pensare. 

Steve St.Angelo allora pubblica QUI un piccolo resoconoto di come e perche' si e' arrivati al secondo numero e perche' il primo (2 mln) pare uscito dalla pura fantasia piuttosto che da ragionamenti e dati seri. 

Copio e incollo, poi si vedra' se tradurre o riassumere. Intanto chi sa l'inglese ha un lavoro da studiarsi, se crede, e chi non lo sa puo' usare google translator




Scientific Data On Total World Gold Production

Bix claims that Harry Oppenheimer supposedly started the false claim of cumulative world gold production in the 1960’s and GFMS, Jeffrey Christian and Goldman Sachs continue to promulgate this falsehood.  Unfortunately, Bix is guilty of not using simple deductive reasoning and 3rd grade math to corroborate his theory.
There were two studies done on estimated world gold production… much earlier than what Bix stated via Harry Oppenheimer in the 1960’s.  The first report was called “The World’s Production Of Gold & Silver From 1493 to 1905 published by the Journal of Political Economy in 1910:
Journal-of-Political-Economy-1910
Here is a gold and silver production table from the report:
Journal-of-Political-Economy-Gold-Summary
According to the estimates in this report, total world gold production from 1493 to 1905 was 565.9 million oz (Moz).  This represents approximately 17,600 metric tons (mt).
A second report produced by the U.S. Bureau of Mines in 1929 was titled, Summarized Data For Gold Production:
Summarized-Data-of-Gold-Production
This report done by the U.S. Bureau of Mines staff, provided the following table:
World-Gold-Production-Summary-1493-1927
According to the U.S. Bureau of Mines, the world produced one billion oz of gold from 1493-1927 (highlighted in yellow).  The figures in this report were built upon the data from the Journal Of Political Economy published in 1910.
Again, we have two detailed publications estimating gold production in 1910 and in 1929… decades before Harry Oppenheimer supposedly made his claim of world cumulative gold production by Bix Weir.
Now, I took the recent data from the USGS – United States Geological Survey and GFMS and made the chart below showing the current cumulative global gold production:
World Gold Production 1493-2014 #2
My chart shows cumulative world gold production of 166,640 mt from 1493 to 2014.  Thomson Reuters GFMS states there has been about 170,000 mt of gold.  However, that is an older figure comprised several years ago.
If we add up all the gold mined from 1493 to 1900 on my chart, it equals 15,158 mt.  If we go to the gold mine supply table right above it and look at the highlighted area showing 487,269,833 oz (1493-1900), it equals 15,156 mt.  The important thing to understand in the chart above is the massive amount of gold mined from 1901-2014.
Of the 166,640 mt of gold mined since 1493, 91% of this figure (151,842 mt) was produced after 1900.  If we use some basic math and logic, there is no way in hell that the world could have produced 2 million metric tons of gold.  If we look at some data from the ancient Roman Empire, we can see that overall gold production wasn’t that much compared to modern times.

Estimated Ancient Roman Gold Production 

According to information from the ancient book, Naturalis Historia by Pliny the Elder who died in 79 ADannual gold production in the Roman Empire was estimated to be 9 metric tons per year (Production in Asturia, Callaecia, and Lusitania (all Iberian Peninsula) alone – Wikipedia)
That 9 metric ton figure is not for the entire Empire, so lets attribute 15 mt per year.  If we assume the Ancient Romans produced 15 mt of gold for 500 years, that would equal 7,500 mt.  I doubt they produced that much, but if they did.. it still won’t change the total 170,000 mt figure all that much.
Regardless, most of the ancient gold produced may be lost forever.  Which is why GFMS states that 170,000 mt is a good ball park figure.  Now, could they have missed some… sure.  So, let’s add another 30,000 mt to get a total of 200,000 mt.  That is still ten times less than the 2 million ton figure that Bix Weir and Karen Hudes claim.

More Logical Data Proving The Official 170,000 mt Figure

The reason gold production went exponential since 1900 was due to the advent of oil as a leading energy source.  The next chart shows how human population and oil production go hand in hand:
World-oil-population-growth
As global oil production increased in an exponential trend, so did world population.  If I were to add metals production to this chart, they would move in the same fashion.  Not only did 91% of all gold mined since 1493 take place after 1900, 81% of cumulative silver production did as well.  Of the 46.7 billion oz of silver produced from 1493 to 2014, 37.7 billion oz were extracted after 1900.
Furthermore, the ratio of cumulative gold and silver production has averaged about 9 to 1:
1493-2014 Gold Production = 166,640 mt
1493-2014 Silver Production = 1,452,560 mt 
Basically, the world has produced about nine times more silver than gold since 1493.  So, if Bix Weir and Karen Hudes theory that the world has closer to 2 million tons of gold just lying around, then the world would have also produced nine times more silver.  This would be a stunning 420 billion oz of silver instead of 46.7 billion oz. 
Doesn’t make any sense does it??
There is no way the world has produced any more than 200,000 mt because simple math and logic proves it’s impossible.  Moreover, there have only been so many true GOLD RUSHES in the world.  One took place in California from 1848-1888:
California_Gold_Production
Gold production in California started in 1848 and peaked just four years later at 3.9 million ounces (Moz). Production continued to decline, even when high-tech techniques of hydraulic mining using massive amounts of water to wash away mountain sides to get the gold.
The California Gold Rush from 1848 to 1888 yielded approximately 57 Moz of gold. How much is this in metric tons? It turns out to be 1,773 mt. This was one of the biggest gold discoveries in the world at the time, but it only accounted for 15% of the total 11,614 mt of gold mined in the world in the 1800-1900 time period.
Again, more proof that mining gold even during ‘Gold Rush” periods doesn’t amount to a whole hell of a lot.

6 commenti:

  1. Il perno di questa sparata è il seguente:" Gira per la rete, in inglese, una vulgata che vuole che al mondo ci siano 2 milioni di tonnellate d'oro, accumulate dall'alba dei tempi e sino a jeri, e non le 170.000 tonnellate circa a cui siamo abituati a pensare".

    Infatti si parla di tonnellate d'oro "estratte" e non "disponibili". Potrebbero essere benissimo anche 3 mln di tonnellate, visto che i report di estrazione di epoca precedente al 1400 lasciano il tempo che trovano, ma la quantità "oggettivamente disponibile" è molto vicina alle 170.000 ton.


    Signor Marrone

    RispondiElimina
    Risposte
    1. si, ma vorrebbe dire che i romani antichi ne estraevano con fuoco e martelli quanto o piu' ne caviamo noi oggi con megatrucks, dinamite e petrolio .. un po' ridicolo, ti pare?

      Poi, si, tutto quello che e' stato estratto potrebbe anche essere andato perso (navi affondate, usura, distrazione..) ma l'oro estratto e perso andrebbe sottratto dai 170.000 non da fantasmatici 2 mln

      Elimina
    2. ok, sono 2 milioni di tons
      vabene?
      contenti?

      sempre meglio un'oncia fra questi 2 milioni di tons

      che qualche carrettata di derivati nel mucchio di 700 trilioni di USD
      (piu conservativa fra le IMPOSSIBILI stime di quanta merda finanziaria abbiano creato i banksters odierni)

      Elimina
    3. exactly bro, exactly :D

      Elimina
  2. bah,

    Oppenheimer suona di quella razza tipo Goldman
    che se dicono una cosa ai clienti
    lo fanno sicuuuuramente per farli guadagnare


    io però purtroppo sono malfidato
    fra i metalli (che il buon dio ha fatto con un numero atomico ben preciso, e grazialcelo stabile, 47 per l'argento e 79 per l'oro)

    e un qualsiasi "prodotto finanziario"
    dalla banale banconota all'esoterico derivato made in DB o JPM,

    non me ne voglia il savio Oppenheimer,

    non ho alcun dubbio

    RispondiElimina
    Risposte
    1. ma che cos'e questa robina qua? cioccolato svizzeroo? noo-o? ...

      Elimina