Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

lunedì 15 febbraio 2016

Durden: Goldman Sachs si rimangia quanto detto solo 5 giorni fa sull'oro e suggerisce di shortarlo

Goldman ci ripensa e se solo meno di una settimana fa vedeva l'oro col potenziale per arrivare sin quasi a 1400 usd/oz, ora ..


As we maintain our view of rising US rates and hence lower gold prices with a 3-month target of $1100/toz and 12-month target of $1000/toz, we are recommending shorting gold through a GSCI-style rolling index. 
Ironically, gold has a negative yield and such a short would create a positive carry in a world concerned about negative interest rates that made gold rise in the first place. 
While we acknowledge that fears around systemic risks can push prices higher in the near term, we see such risks not offsetting the potential gain given how extreme pricing has become and the heavy data reporting period in coming weeks that will likely show that the while economic growth has slowed, it is not collapsing to the point to justify such extreme pricing across assets. 
We believe that the sharp rise in gold prices this past week was mostly due to concerns over systemic risks, particularly in the banking sector, given the sharp correlation of gold prices with bank stocks and other measures of systemic credit risks. 
While this is a continuation of a trend established since the beginning of the year that started with systemic concerns over oil and China, we believe that these new fears like the past fears are not justified. As our banks team argues, European banks, which are at the center of concerns over negative interest rates, can fund from the emergency funding facilities put in place in 2012 (the TLTRO remains barely used), money markets are open with no evidence of strain in either euro or dollar funding, while deposit growth is further adding to liquidity. All of this against a backdrop of higher capitalization aided by deleveraging suggests that a crisis re-run is unlikely. (...) 

dai Tylers QUI

5 commenti:

  1. Aldo - A 1000$ ? Lo spero vivamente. Potrei comprare 20 oz... :-))))

    RispondiElimina
  2. e ma che cazzo, decidetevi!
    come facciamo se no, noi,
    a fare il contrario???

    RispondiElimina
    Risposte
    1. si, certo che fidarsi di quei bravi ragazzi a GS ... comunque anche Armstrong - il mio idolo del momento - e' dell'avviso che questa non e' LA mossa

      Elimina
  3. Quindi dopo lo storno tecnico comprate a man bassa

    RispondiElimina
    Risposte
    1. non so .. ora Draghi ha detto che ci pensa lui, fine dei problemi .... o no? :)

      Elimina