Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

mercoledì 20 gennaio 2016

Snider: Sappiamo come va a finire (parte 1)

QUI Jeffrey Snider racconta la storia di come ben presto il sistema monetario architettato a Bretton Woods fra le potenze vincitrici del conflitto - ancora in atto all'epoca della conferenza che ebbe luogo nel 1944 - entro' in crisi, come nacque quello che viene chiamato il London Gold Pool, come lavoro' per anni prima di arrivare alla chiusura dello sportello dell'oro in maniera unilaterale da parte di Nixon a ferragosto del 1971 .. darebbe da tradurre per bene. Un assaggio: 

The gold exchange standard under the Bretton Woods framework had appeared to have lasted as far as this monetary conference, but it had ended in practicality long before. In the late 1950’s, central banks, the Federal Reserve primary among them, had rendered gold especially and increasingly irrelevant in settling the world’s trade finance. 
It took almost a decade, but Bretton Woods was mostly gone by 1968 when gold started trading at a two-tiered price. In reality, functionally, Bretton Woods ended not long after October 20, 1960, in the formation of what would become known as the London Gold Pool – a consortium of government and central bank allocations that would actively supply gold when needed to “hold” its price and enforce the official price. By the standards of Bretton Woods, to have a foreign pool established in order to maintain the convertibility of the dollar alone was breaking the rules. 
That fact occurred almost immediately after gold flirted with $40. In fact, on October 27, 1960, the Bank of England was called upon to work closely with the Fed to supply gold in an attempt to calm that market (though there is little paper trail, you know there were gold swaps flying the Atlantic from that point). It was the initial formation of the Gold Pool, and had some success in at least keeping further “devaluation” from rapidly destabilizing global affairs, financial and economic. 
The Gold Pool invoked but temporary calm and obviously failed. By 1967, sterling “had” to be devalued once more (from $2.80 to $2.40) and it kicked off an age that was fomented by chronic instability, or what we now call the Great Inflation. For the Gold Pool, the imbalance had grown so large that it was forced to cease operations in March 1968, having sold a massive, almost unthinkable $3 billion in gold in just the four months prior to its end – $400 million on March 14, 1968, alone (it bears emphasizing that these were just huge amounts even though in today’s inflationary context they seem quite quaint; and that is the point of comparison and devaluation where once $1 billion meant something but today we need trillions to merit any attention at all, but how we got to that point is a story nobody seems to appreciate in its relevant comprehensiveness). Of the $3 billion, the United States official reserves accounted for $2.2 billion, or an 18% drop. From that point forward, gold would trade on a two-tiered basis; the official exchange rates would be maintained but there would also be a separate price for the private market. 
If you were a European bank in early 1968 and had accumulated dollars, there wasn’t really much you could do with them without bearing currency and inflationary risk. The Bretton Woods system had been designed, intentionally, to be funneled through official channels, as that was what economists wanted (proclaiming their own enlightenment the key to fomenting permanent stability; markets = mess). Thus, any bank holding dollars wishing to exchange them at the official rate had to turn them over to their national central bank for payment in local currency. But that wasn’t as straightforward as it sounded, either. 
In truth, with gold no longer providing a satisfactory monetary anchor anywhere, banks proficient in global finance found themselves increasingly devoted to currency “speculation.” (...) 

la prima parte continua QUI

la seconda parte la trovi QUI

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento