Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

domenica 13 dicembre 2015

Stockman: The End of the Bubble Finance Era

David Stockman:

Wall Street bulls and Keynesian apologists for the Fed want you to believe that there isn’t much to see here. They claim it’s just a temporary oil glut and some CapEx over-exuberance in the metals and mining industry. 
But their assurances that in a year or so current excess supplies of copper, crude, iron ore and other commodities will be absorbed by an expanding global economy couldn’t be farther from the truth. In fact, this error is at the heart of my investment viewpoint. 
We believe the global economy is vastly bloated with debt-based spending that can’t be sustained. And that this distortion is compounded on the supply side by an incredible surplus of excess production capacity. As well as wasteful malinvestments that were enabled by dirt cheap central bank credit. 
Consequently, the world economy is actually going to shrink for the first time since the 1930s. That’s because the plunging price of commodities is only a prelude to what will amount to a worldwide CapEx depression — the kind of thing that has not happened since the 1930s.

Anni ed anni di credito a costo zero da parte delle banche centrali di mezzo mondo (a costo zero per le banche, ben piu' che per la gente) hanno creato una colossale quantita' di malinvestimenti e previsioni troppo rosee che sta colpendo ora le commodities ma secondo Stockman e' solo l'inizio di una crisi piu' ampia, con spese CapEx, in investimenti, che resteranno depresse per parecchi anni, almeno per il resto della decade (Miners generalisti che resteranno quotato ai minimi per anni? Temo di si). Una roba che il mondo non vedeva dalla Grande Depressione degli anni '30 ...

(...) That’s also why the coming global recession will be so prolonged and stubborn. When cheap credit generates a boom in long-lived and expensive capital goods, it gives rise to a pipeline of new capacity. 
This pipeline is not easy to shut-off and often makes sense to complete — say containerships, steel plants or new field mines — even if pricing and profitability have already headed south. That’s known as the sunk cost problem. 
Mining equipment orders are likely to remain deeply depressed for the rest of the decade. And this syndrome will be repeated in most other sectors such as heavy trucks, shipyards, oil drilling equipment etc.

La prossima recessione globale sara' particolarmente prolungata e "testarda" (e mi sa che ha ragione). I miners non compreranno nuovi camion, nuove navi, nuovo equipaggiamento in generale per almeno il resto della decade .. 

(...) During the last 25 years CapEx spending by the publicly listed companies of the world grew by an incredible 500%. 
Much of this happened in China and the Emerging Market (EM) economies, and in the transportation and distribution infrastructure that connects them.

Duranti egli ultimi 25 anni le spese in investimenti da parte di societa' per azioni sono cresciute del 500%, specie in Cina e nei Mercati Emergenti ... 


Mercati Emergenti i cui mercati azionari, fra l'altro stanno andando abbastanza di schifo da prima del QE3 della Fed:

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