Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

martedì 1 dicembre 2015

Lonmin: Ottimismo nell'aria ... o no?

Pare che ci sia un modesto ottimismo (parola grossa) su Lonmin (terzo miner al mondo in Platino e platinoidi vari) dopo il rilancio, l'aumento di capitali, di azioni ad 1 pence (!!!), 46 diritti (a comprare 46 nuove azioni per ogni posseduta ad i penny) per ogni azione posseduta per chi al 20 novembre ne aveva gia' (come me):
 
Lonmin shares seem to have settled at around 1.2p, following the firm’s recent rights issue. This price was the theoretical ex-rights price for the firm’s stock, based on a pre-rights issue price of 10p. 
This is relatively good news for shareholders. If Lonmin’s shares had fallen dramatically below 1.2p, this would mean that the rights issue had failed to stop the share price falling. 
Lonmin shareholders are now in an interesting position. The company has minimal debt and has committed to cutting costs to make the company “sustainable and viable”. 
The City has turned more positive on the firm over the last month. Broker forecasts for 2016/17 have risen sharply and suggest the firm will make a post-tax profit of $20m next year. 
However, I think that shareholders need to be cautious. These forecasts could be based more on hope than reality. After all, many of the analysts producing these forecasts work for institutions who will have been involved in the rights issue, either as advisers or investors. It’s not in the City’s interest for Lonmin shares to collapse again immediately. 
During the year ending 30 September, Lonmin’s production costs fell by 24%. The firm is promising more cuts but we don’t yet know whether it can generate positive cash flow at current platinum prices. 
However, if Lonmin’s restructuring is successful, then I think the shares could easily double in value quite quickly.

Ma l'autore del pezzo fa notare che questo "ottimismo" e' pelosetto visto che molti di quelli che si mostrano positivi sono fra quelli che hanno dovuto rilanciare in questi giorni, o lavorano per istituzioni che sono rimaste impelagate nei nuovi diritti emessi, o come consiglieri o come investitori ..

Io ho finalmente telefanato a Fineco l'altro giorno ed ho deciso di vedere i diritti che avevo (per 80.500 nuove azioni! OTC, li vendi solo telefonando al tuo broker), la mia "esposizione" per 3-400 euri mi basta!

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento