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domenica 6 dicembre 2015

Jesse: La domanda d'oro da parte della Silk Road supera tutte le nuove produzioni minerarie mondiali - Un gioco di conseguenze

Grafiche di Nick Laird of goldchartsrus.com

Jesse fa notare come la domanda d'oro da parte dei paesi "della Silk Road" (Via della Seta) ha avuto un'accellerazione nel 2008-09 e poi un'altra accelerazione ulteriore dopo il crollo dei prezzi di aprile 2013 (vedere le pendenze del grafico principale, tutto insieme pare un ramo di parabola.. fra 2000 e 2008 pero' e' abbastanza approssimabile con una retta, e idem fra 2008 e 2013 e dopo il 2013, rette sempre piu' pendenti). 

La cosa su cui zumma in particolare in questo post pero' e come negli ultimi tempi la domanda da parte della Silk Road SUPERA e anche sostanzialmente, le produzioni mondiali di metallo giallo: guardate il grafico sotto, la linea bianca orizzontale (o quasi) rappresenta le produzioni minerarie mondiali (Global Production).  Come vedete sino al 2008 la domanda collettiva della Silk Road era ben sotto la linea bianca mentre poi .... ormai sono un pajo di anni che le colonnine mensili rosso-giallo-verdi-ecc superano quasi regolarmente la linea bianca. 

La domanda d'oro da parte dei paesi della Silk Road e' QUINTUPLICATA in pochi anni

Da dove piffero viene quindi tutto quest'oro che sta fluendo verso l'Asia (dalla Russia alla Turchia, all'India alla Cina, i principali paesi di questa "Via della Seta) che supera le produzioni minerarie mondiali?

Jesse parla di scorte occidentali che si assottigliano, a NYC, a Londra e negli ETF

The monthly demand from these nations as shown below has grown five-fold compared what it was prior to 2008. 
In the latest month their total consumption, that is private purchasing in addition to publicly disclosed official reserves, was 365 tonnes. 
Nick has estimated global production as averaging about 260 tonnes per month.  
This represents a shortfall of about 105 tonnes per month to be drawn from existing supplies.   
Se le produzioni aurifere mondiali si aggirano sulle 260 tonnellate al mese, la domanda d'oro da parte dei soli paesi della Via della Seta quest'ultimo mese e' stata di 365 tonnellate: mancano 105 tonnellate per soddisfare la domanda asiatica IN PIU' oltre le produzioni minerarie di tutto il mondo (!) .. da dove viene quest'oro?
This shortfall appears to be growing proportionately with increasing demand, visible on the first chart below. 
So this is one reason why we have been seeing the existing stocks of gold around the world drawn down to cover the steadily growing demand from these countries.  And as you may recall, the central banks of the world became net buyers of gold around 2008. 
Comex has little available stocks in its domestic warehouses compared to this demand, All of the gold in all the warehouses, whether it is for sale or not, if taken and liquidated is just over 200 tonnes as is shown on the report below. 
London is a more substantial source of bullion, but is running down it's supply as we have seen in the 'gold float' analysis also included below.  
Interestingly enough, the year over year drawdown in the London free float is about 100 tonnes per month. 
There is also supply in ETFs and Trusts.  This too has been drawn down steadily, particularly since 2013 
These are not precise figures, but estimates gleaning from public sources.  I suspect the supply numbers are 'generous' with regard to the free float and the unencumbered nature of gold through multiple claims and leasing, but that is conjecture. 
But no wonder the Indian government is so anxious to persuade their people to turn their gold into synthetic paper gold, and allow it to be hypothecated.  And no wonder that the Fed told the German government that their gold was temporarily inconvenienced until 2019.  And no wonder Venezuela is being leaned on so heavily to give back the gold that it so recently repatriated so it may be sold. 
I wonder what it would take to increase mine production and bring more gold in as scrap and private sales to meet this growing demand.  Higher prices perhaps? 
And if so, then perhaps knocking the price down so aggressively, crippling the precious metals mining industry, is not a fruitful idea for the longer term.  Gold supply is not so easily manageable as a fiat currency's may be.  
Given the current rate of growth in demand and the current state of supply, next year could be interesting.  Still, I never like to underestimate the 'resourcefulness' of the central banks, especially when they are operating in relative secrecy. And it never fails to surprise me at how reluctant the various groups of the status quo are to discuss these things except on their own terms, and within their own narrative.   
And so such great events can happen slowly, and largely hidden and unremarked, until they seemingly burst upon the scene, speaking unpleasant truths.

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