Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

lunedì 14 dicembre 2015

Hugh Smith: Is Oil Close to a Tradable Bottom?

Charles High Smith si chiede se il petrolio non sia arrivato ad un minimo

.. un falling wedge (figura rialzista), un po' come quello che vede ora Clive Maund nell'oro (vedi post di qualche giorno fa).. ma anche il rapporto Oro/Petrolio ha la sua da dire:

You can see that typically the ratio is between 10 and 20. When oil was almost $150/barrel, the ratio sank near 7--an extreme at the other end of the scale. 
Gold to Oil Ratio Historical Chart 
What would it take for the ratio to return to 15? Either oil must rise or gold must drop significantly. In a world in which phantom collateral and phantom assets are vanishing before our eyes, I don't see gold declining much--rather, I see its current basing phase as setting up a long-term upward bias. 
If gold doesn't drop significantly, the only way the ratio can resume its historical average is for oil to go back up to $60-$70/barrel or more. This looks "impossible" at the moment, but if the gol-oil ratio has any relevance, it's something to leave in the realm of the possible.

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