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sabato 26 dicembre 2015

Durden: Lo Zimbabwe diventa la prima colonia di Beijing in Africa: Yuan Renminbi a corso legale

Lo Zimbabwe dopo la simpatica iperinflazione di pochi anni fa (si parla del recentissimo 2009) aveva rimosso dalla circolazione il suo Dollaro. Quest'estate poi ne hanno eliminato il corso legale (legal tender) e 174 quadrilioni di Dollari dello Zimbabwe sono stati cambiati in 5 USD:

After its disastrous adventures with hyperinflation denominated in its own currency, Zimbabwe decided to entirely abandon its reserve currency and shift to the dollar.
(...) As we reported over the summer, the Zimbabwe Central bank completely "demonetized" the old Zimbabwe Dollar which would be removed as legal tender after the currency’s use was abandoned in 2009 following a surge in inflation to 500 billion percent. 
To do this, the bank would exchange up to 175 quadrillion Zimbabwe dollars for $5 US dollars, the country’s central bank said.

Per inquadrare un po' la storia, si parla di un paese con "solo" 14-15 milioni di abitanti

Nel paese si usavano quindi per lo piu' Dollari USA e Rand Sudafricani (belli anche quelli in questi mesi)... ma il banchiere centrale del paese non era troppo contento che si usasse il Dollaro della Fed:

First, as noted in 2011, in a stunning example of irony, Zimbabwe cult central banker Gideon Gono made it clear he wishes to avoid another episode of transplant currency hyperinflation courtesy of his counterpart in the Marriner Eccles building and "warned that Zimbabwe’s nascent economic recovery is at the mercy of the United States dollar, which is facing new pressures from the Euro-zone debt crisis." Yes, Zimbabwe was bashing the US Dollar. 
Gono said Zimbabwe should in be looking to the Chinese yuan as its main currency, while urgently seeking to restore its own currency which was abandoned in 2009 after a dramatic loss of its value. 
Amusingly, he said that "with the continuous firming of the Chinese yuan, the US dollar is fast ceasing to be the world's reserve currency and the Euro-Zone debt crisis has made things even worse." 
And the terminal slap in the face of all that is American: "As a country, we still have the opportunity to avoid being caught napping by adopting the Chinese yuan as part of consolidating the country's look East policy."

Insomma, la paura, gia' nel 2011, era di finire completamente nelle mani della Fed (il Marriner Eccles building, costruito ai tempi di Roosevelt se non erro, e' la sede della Fed) e delle sue scelte. E Gono, il boss della Banca Centrale dello Zimbabwe, diceva gia' allora di guardare allo Yuan come principale valuta di riserva del paese.. visto che l'USD stava perdendo un po' alla volta il suo status di valuta di riserva d'eccellenza del sistema monetario/bancario mondiale. 

I Tylers poi notano che ..

Second, as further reported early in 2015, China decided to reciprocate Zimbabwe's diplomatic overtures, by taking a special interest in the south African nation bordering the gold and diamond rich Republic of South Africa. 
It did so by announcing it planned to set up a modern high-tech military base in Zimbabwe's diamond-rich Marange fields.

.. le diplomazie di Zimbabwe e Cina si sono mosse abbastanza all'unisono col loro interesse verso il Sud Africa ricco di oro e diamanti e i cinesi hanno annunciato meno di un anno fa di voler aprire una ipertecnologica base militare nella regione zimbabwese (?) - ricca di diamanti - del Marange. I cinesi insomma sono parecchio interessati alle risorse minerarie della zona oltre che a quelle agricole e ai potenziali commerci in generale. 

Ma soprattutto..

The third, and most important reason, is that according to leaked confidential Central Intelligence Organisation documents suggested that China had played a central role in retaining President Robert Mugabe in the country's most recent elections, indicating that high level military officers had worked closely with the local army in poll strategies while Beijing bankrolled the ruling party, Zanu (PF).

.. militari cinesi avrebbero collaborato di recente con l'esercito locale durante le elezioni che hanno riconfermato il presidente Mugabe. 

Ma arriviamo ad oggi: lunedi' e' stato dato l'annuncio che lo Zimbabwe adottera' lo Yuan come valuta "a corso legale":

And then, on Monday, all of our confusion was laid to rest when Zimbabwe announced that this small, economically devastated country would officially make the Chinese Yuan its legal tender as it seeks to increase trade with Beijing. In exchange for becoming not only a military but also financial colony of China, $40 million of its debts to Beijing would be canceled.

China was delighted it cost it only a $40 million debt write off to acquire its first official African colony.

In cambio i cinesi cancelleranno 40 milionicini di USD di debito zimbabwese (una cifra ridicola per avere una ormai vera e propria colonia africana, dicono i Tylers, la prima che si possa ufficialmente chiamare tale). 

As the Star adds, "the Chinese are determined to make their currency as prestigious as possible and this is a cheap way for them to be able to claim that their currency is becoming more internationally accepted — it’s now legal tender in another country." 
Adoption by a struggling economy has been a privilege previously reserved for the U.S. dollar, which is officially used by almost a dozen other countries. 
While the yuan circulates unofficially in some countries that neighbour China, Cohen said Zimbabwe’s official adoption is a major step toward making a claim to be on par with the dollar. 
To be sure, there are problems which come with adopting foreign currencies over which one has no control, as Greece will eagerly admit:

But taking on a foreign currency is much easier than weaning yourself off it, Cohen said, pointing to Greece, which could benefit from being able to devalue its own currency to make their economy more competitive.
“Adopting a foreign currency can put a lid on hyperinflation,” he said. “But it’s very difficult to reverse the process.”

... una volta adottata una valuta straniera fare marcia indietro non e' cosa facile (vedi Italia ed Euro ;D) ...

Yuan Renminbi CNY 1 - Dollaro USD 12 (circa, paesi che adottano direttamente una valuta straniera). 

leggi tutto QUI

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