Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

mercoledì 18 novembre 2015

Turk: Quando andavo all'universita', negli anni '60, ci dicevano che se il governo non avesse supportato ancora l'oro, sarebbe crollato da 35 a 7 dollari l'oncia (infatti sali' sino a 850 in 9 anni)

(...) I went to university to study international economics in the 1960s. Gold was $35 an ounce at that time. I was taught that when the US government would stop supporting gold at $35, it was going to fall to $7.

(...) Yes. Be prudent. Don’t get into debt. Save your money. Plan for an uncertain future. One of the things I learned from my parents as a young kid—I was born in 1947, so they had gone through the Great Depression, but they made a very important point to me.

They said that 25% of the people did very well during the Great Depression. They lived very comfortably and weren’t really affected by it. 25% of the people got by, and about 50% of the people they estimated did very poorly because they didn’t plan for the future.

(...) To me, the gold supply is the 170,000 metric tons that exists in the above ground stock.

Gold doesn’t disappear. It doesn’t get burned up. It doesn’t get used up. It’s always there. It’s not like commodities. It’s not like crude oil and soybeans which get used and disappear and consumed.

But gold just gets accumulated. All the gold mined throughout history still exists in this above ground stock. The above ground stock about 170,000 metric tons, I call it gold’s ‘M3.’ The dollars have a quantity of money and they call it M1, M2, M3.

Well, this above ground stock is gold’s M3. The interesting thing about this above ground stock is that it grows by about 1.75% per annum.

So it follows precisely Milton Friedman’s K rule in which he said that to have a sound money, you have to have the money stock grow consistently by the same amount year after year after year.

That’s exactly what gold does. It grows by about 1.75% per annum year after year after year. It’s very consistent, which is why gold preserves purchasing power over long periods of time. Why does an ounce of gold today buy the same amount of crude oil it did 50 years ago? It’s for that reason.

The way gold is dispersed in the earth’s crust is very fortuitous because as technology improves, it becomes easier to find gold that’s more and more dispersed. But the gold stock still grows at 1.75% per annum.

It’s a shame that college professors don’t recognize how simple it is and that gold really is the best form of money. That’s why it has been money for 5000 years.

Keep in mind that it’s only since 1971 that we’ve gotten off a gold standard. This has never happened before in history. Gold has always been the key underlying element. So we’re in uncharted territory.

What would you rather bet on? Something with a 5000-year history that still preserves purchasing power? Or fiat currency based on politicians and their promises that have a 40-year history?

That history of the latter isn’t very good, given all of the problems we’re having with currencies around the world, and given the fact that over a hundred different currencies have collapsed around the world since the end of the Second World War.


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