Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

martedì 17 novembre 2015

Jesse: Lettera aperta a Paul Krugman sulla "bramosia d'oro"

An Open Letter To Paul Krugman On the 'Lust for Gold'


This is a response to Mr. Krugman's recent column as it was featured at Economist's View titled, Republican Lust for Gold

I am not in favor of a return to a gold standard.

I am a reasonably well-educated, politically progressive professional, a likely supporter of Bernie Sanders but not the 'Wall Street Democrats,' who believes that the current 'debate' over the place of gold in the economy is breaking along ideological lines to the point of religious fervor and intellectual blindness on both sides.

I think of gold as an alternative store of wealth, which without any sanctions from the state pro or con can serve a very useful purpose. It gives people a 'choice.' It can act as a barometer of sentiment. And it serves a purpose especially in times of pervasive fraud in the financial asset markets.

And if you think that pervasive fraud has been fixed you are sorely mistaken.

If a system cannot stand the criticism offered by something which one cannot and probably ought not to control, then perhaps the fault is in the system, and not in the critics.

The current 'stimulus' is a massive failure because it has been trying to save a broken and largely unreformed financial system, rather than provide stimulus and support to the vast majority of the participants. It is the Faustian bargain of placing priority in means and methods, because they are 'ours.' Our method, our model. First and foremost. Because we fear for our credibility.

Unfortunately, Gresham's law is still works. Gold, and to a lesser extent silver, are flowing 'en masse' to Asia in almost astonishing numbers of tonnes each month. The numbers are there, little publicized and noted in the prestige media, but almost shocking. It has not yet made its way fully into official reporting mechanisms, even so called 'industry organs.'

Mr. Krugman, nine out of ten Americans will notice that the vast peoples of Asia and the Mideast are not 'Republicans.' But they are looking for a safe alternative to a monetary and financial system that is going off the rails, again.

No I do not support the gold standard, not at all. It would be entirely inappropriate for a patient still in the ICU to prescribe a regime of hard exercise and strict diet. And the corruption in this system is capable of corrupting anything, even an external standard. And on one subject at least he was correct.

Given the proper regulation, transparency, and judgement, a paper currency can emulate the steadiness of a gold standard while allowing for more latitude in times of distress. Do you really believe that we have held to that prescription with our serial bubbles, frauds and crises?

But I do feel quite strongly that the current policy of constant market intervention in the West, which is obviously happening to anyone who is capable and experienced in watching trade patterns, is going to tear a hole in the facade that this sick series of policy errors is becoming.

If one takes even a cursory look at the trade flows of gold, one can see that the flows into Asia and the Mideast are relentless, and growing. And the decline of 'free float' in the UK and US in particular is striking. The numbers are difficult to discover, but some have taken on that task.

The leverage and shuffling of free bullion around to dull the interest in leverage is approaching 300 to 1 in NYC and 200 to 1 in the 'physical' LBMA market in London is the kind of obvious error that one looks back at from the wreckage and says, 'What were they thinking?'

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/uk-gold-export-to-china-hit-record-in-september-chinese-gold-import-156t/

We made a mistake. We have tolerated a farcically ineffective program of 'reform' and a massive top down stimulus focused on the 'system' with an austerity for the public that is going to rip a tear in the social fabric which will take years, and significant amount of pain, to mend.

It is going to happen, no matter what models or arguments you may wish to stick your head in. I am not trying to argue a point. I am trying to encourage people to at least look at what is happening, and to stop comforting themselves with obviously faulty numbers and metrics from a system that has stopped serving most participants in favor of a powerful few.

This is going to end badly. I was more demure when we had similar discussions here like this prior to the housing bubble collapse. 'And no one could have seen it coming.'  Because their eyes were closed and they comforted themselves with what they wanted to hear.

There is, at some point, going to be a dislocation in the international currency and bond markets.   And it will be noticeable, unless we change our ways and embrace honesty, transparency, broader equity, and reform.

It will not come from the political process, because that has also been broken by the power of big money.  That has become so painfully obvious that the only way to continue to justify it is to declare corporations to be 'people' and bribery to be 'free speech.'

People may think of themselves as 'Keynesians,'  and what the 'other side' thinks about Keynes is admittedly mostly an ideologically tainted caricature.  But first and foremost what made Keynes effective was his practical focus on the desired results and not to a preconceived model which crushes out the better part of reality in its understandable and unfortunate inadequacy that is common to all 'models.'

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