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lunedì 12 ottobre 2015

Williams: Have we hit gold's, silver's and pgms' bottoms yet?

Dal vecchio londinese Lawrie Williams:
(...) The bank analysts for the most part are looking for $1,000 or below and the outright bulls for $2,000 and above. The latest very negative forecast has come from French bank Natixis – which has been fairly consistently bearish on most metals over the past couple of years – and which forecast gold to average only $990/oz next year and $1,020 in 2017. 
L'ultima previsione al ribasso per l'oro viene da Natixis, sempre ribassista da anni: 990 usd/oz in media nel 2016 e 1020 usd/oz nel 2017
(...) The fact that gold closed the week above $1150 has perhaps added a little price momentum, but whether this can be sustained remains the key. On the technical front the next key breakthrough level on the upside is seen at the 200 day moving average, currently at around $1176 – that’s only a rise of just over $20 from the Friday close and with the dollar tending weaker that can’t be ruled out as a possibility.  
Se si salisse sopra la media mobile a 200 gg, ora sui 1176 usd/oz .. 
(...) There does seem to be at least a small positive change in sentiment towards gold which may hearten the bulls and could well suggest that perhaps it has indeed bottomed. Thus the next couple of weeks will probably be key to the metal’s likely performance over the remainder of the year – and of the other precious metals. Gold is still just about range bound – although the range may have moved up slightly and it is at the top end now. If it breaks out and can breach the 200 day moving average that should lead to computer-generated buying which could take it to $1200 and above.
.. si potrebbe correre sino ai 1200 ed oltre
(...) But any upwards path is unlikely to be smooth so bottom fishers could still have plenty of buying opportunities if this should prove to be a true turning point. But with so many bank analysts still predicting further gold price weakness, and presumably advising their investor and fund clientele accordingly, it would be dangerous to assume that gold has bottomed for sure. But its prospects for rises ahead do perhaps look better than they have been for the past two years at least.
Ma attenzione, il tragitto non sara' facile e ci potranno ancor essere un sacco di opportunita' per pescare il fondo" e con così tanti che prevedono ancora nero per l'oro e sono magari banche o promotori che non lo consigliano ai loro clienti ... 

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