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domenica 4 ottobre 2015

Gundlach: Perche' il mercato non e' ancora crollato? Perché la gente non vende ancora, incrocia le dita e spera




Dai Tylers:


Back to Gundlach again, whose Los Angeles-based DoubleLine was overseeing $81 billion in assets under management as of the end of the third quarter, said: "Clearly what's happening is people are waking up to the idea that global growth is not what they thought it was." 
Gundlach's damning observation on the current state of the world would make him a worth entrant into the "conspiracy theory tinfoil blog hall of fame": "People are acting like everything is great. Junk bonds are at a four-year low. Emerging markets are at a six-year low and commodities are at a multi-year low - same level as in 1995 ... GDP is not growing at a nominal basis."

La gente (dove per "gente" Gundlach intende anche hedge fund managers, banchieri ecc, visto che mi pare di aver letto che soli il 25% dei proprietari di azioni negli USA sono "retail", persone normali, investitori singoli) vuol far finta che va tutto alla grande ma il debito rischioso e' ai minimi  da 4 anni, i mercati emergenti ai minimi da 6 anni e le commodities ai minimi dal 1995.. il PIL cresce solo a livello nominale. 


Even International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde affirmed this, Gundlach said: "You talk about an important moment – when somebody who is traditionally a cheerleader for a bright future says, 'I have to downgrade my global growth forecast,' as Lagarde did."

Quando persino il FMI smette di fare da cheerleader e va coi piedi di piombo ... 

It gets worse: Gundlach, who has maintained since May that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates at all this year, said the environment feels similar to 2007's, when a financial crisis was brewing.

Gundlach, che amministra con la sua DoubleLine più di 80 miliardi di dollari dice che si respira un'arietta simile a quella di poco prima del macello del 2007

"People want them (Fed officials) to increase because they think it is a signal that everything is secretly OK. If the Fed raises rates, that means everything is OK. But it is the other way around. If the Fed raises rates against this backdrop, it just makes things worse." 
Gundlach's closing observation: "There's going to be another wave down in risk assets and it's happening globally."

Riassunto: so' cazzi! 

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