Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

venerdì 23 ottobre 2015

Durden: Goldman slitta in avanti nel tempo le sue previsioni bearish sull'oro


Goldman insiste che l'Euro scenderà ancora, sino alla parita' col Dollaro e oltre, a 0,95 .. e che si e' sbagliata sull'oro (?! Vediamo meglio..). 

Il metallo giallo ha sovraperformato le altre commodities quest'anno, dice GS, massacrate praticamente tutte ai minimi storici o quasi, mentre l'oro dopo le ultime settimane minacciava persino di essere in attivo rispetto all'ultimo capodanno. Dai Tylers:

Enter Goldman, which moments ago admitted that while its "base case is still for higher US real interest rates, lower gold", it may be wrong adding that "while our base case remains for higher US real rates and lower gold prices, there are significant risks that our forecast for gold price weakness is pushed out, should the Fed surprise us and remain on hold in December."
"Le nostre previsioni di un oro più basso potrebbero essere scartate (traduzione: buttate nel cestino) se la Fed ci sorprendesse e non alzasse i tassi (di un ormai arcinoto, simbolico, 0,25%) entro dicembre."

Quindi? Le sue previsioni bearish non valgono più? ... Naaaa! : )
Indeed, notwithstanding the fact that the “new normal” equilibrium in interest rates remains uncertain, a plausible range of scenarios all imply lower gold prices. 
Overall, our forecasts are unchanged, however we roll our forecasts along the existing price forecast path, such that our 3/6/12-month forecasts are $1,100/oz, $1,050/oz, and $1,000/oz, respectively.
"Le nostre previsioni non cambiano, solo che le slittiamo in avanti nel tempo" 
1.100 USD/oz per gennajo 2016 
1.050 USD/oz per aprile 2016 
1.000 USD/oz per ottobre 2016
Cheddire? Attendiamo con ansia. E ce lo scriviamo sul muro, per controllare la veridicita' delle previsioni dellOracolo. : )


PS: L'introduzione dei Tylers a questo post e' molto bella, un "riassunto delle puntate precedenti" sintetico e gustoso:
When it comes to assets, economists, Wall Street, and central planners love them all... except one: gold. Forget about Bernanke's hilarious sworn testimony that gold has "value only due to tradition", and recall Mario Draghi's QE announcement in December 2014 when asked what sorts of assets should be included in QE, his response: "we discussed all assets BUT gold."  
Well of course the ECB will never buy gold - by its very nature, the precious metal stands for everything the legacy insolvent regime patched together with the superglue of money printing central-bankers, hates: prudent use of money and leverage, living within one's means, and most importantly, saving not spending. Gold applied to the current regime where the world is drowning in about 3.5 times more debt than GDP would mean wiping out trillions in equity value that should not exist.  
It also makes impossible such monstrous abortions as $1 quadrillion in global derivatives which, like a house of cards, is only as strong as the weakest counterparty, and is why central banks around the globe have gone all in on the Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen/Draghi put, and will never allow another major bank to fail again. 
Ironically, while the "very serious", if laughable and totally discredited people, take every opportunity to bash gold, they are quietly buying up all the physical gold they can find, whether it is in London (where the local vaults are practically empty), or in Beijing or Bombay, which are the largest natural sources of demand for physical gold.  
Lately these same "serious" people are starting to get nervous, because while most other "commodities" have seen their prices plummet in the biggest crash since Lehman, gold just went green for the year. And the last thing the financial system, already teetering on the edge of global recession, can handle is another massive momentum wave out of "intangible" assets and into very real gold, like what happened in 2010 and 2011 before the BIS ended gold's meteoric rise in September 2011.

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