Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

martedì 22 settembre 2015

Jesse: Scegliere fra oro e argento e' come dire se preferisci il cacciavite o il martello


Sempre grande il nostro Jesse


I read an analyst talk the old 'gold vs. silver' argument over the weekend. In my opinion it is a fruitless argument  to consider in the abstract, and so I don't.  
Gold and silver are both precious metals, but have some not so subtle differences.  Silver has a much higher beta, meaning it will go up more and down more than gold.  So if you can handle the volatility then silver is fine.  If you would like less volatility then gold is more suitable.  Gold has less of a component of industrial use than silver, but there is much more free floating silver around than gold, and much of it is produced as a byproduct of mining base metals. 
I think there is a place for both in any diversified precious metals portfolio.  Arguing about the merits of one versus the other is like arguing about which is better, a screwdriver or a hammer.   You have to consider the job at hand for yourself.   And you can have a use for both of them.

Sono entrambi metalli preziosi, semplicemente l'argento ha un beta più alto, che non significa altro che sale di più quando si sale e scende di più quando si scende. Entrambi hanno possono avere il loro posto in un portafoglio bilanciato. A te scegliere, a seconda della tua personalità .. e poi scegliere anche entrambi ;)  (e palladio e platino no? Io insisto che il palladio mi pare più tonico - o meno depresso - di tutti da un paio di annetti a sta parte)


PS: Jesse resta sempre più convinto che si stia sviluppando uno short squeeze ne; mercato dell'oro di Londra (vero hub occidentale del metallo fisico) e New York (più carta e scommesse)


I am personally persuaded by a growing amount of circumstantial evidence that there is a short squeeze developing in physical gold in London and New York, fueled by excessive paper trading and the insatiable demand in Asia. 
New York really trades overwhelmingly on a non-physical basis these days, so The Bucket Shop is more likely to be a late stage 'tell' and collateral damage than an actual precipitant of a short squeeze.  
London is a the real Occidental bullion hub, and they tend to shroud their leverage and pricing antics behind a curtain of privileged secrecy.  But London and Switzerland are where the physical bullion of the West is flowing East.

5 commenti:

  1. analisi tecnica sui metalli preziosi di Commerzbank

    http://www.sharpspixley.com/uploads/BullionWeeklyTechnicals15092015.pdf

    RispondiElimina
  2. UBS comincia ad essere bullish sull'oro

    "Right now, investors are simply not engaged. It's been a tough market to trade and there are other assets that are acting as alternative avenues to express macro views. While the lack of interest has meant that there is less urgency to buy dips, it also means that there is less selling firepower. In addition, the risk/reward of going short has deteriorated," UBS argues.

    http://www.efxnews.com/story/30462/time-warm-gold-ubs

    RispondiElimina
  3. Focus su sette titoli auriferi (MilanoFinanza)

    http://www.milanofinanza.it/news/focus-su-sette-titoli-auriferi-201509152059459458

    RispondiElimina
  4. Buoni affari in vista per una "silver streamer company" (comprano argento dai miners finanziandoli in anticipo in cambio di metallo per x anni a prezzi vantaggiosi) come Silver Wheaton?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-21/silver-wheaton-pursuing-5-billion-in-deals-globally-ceo-says

    RispondiElimina
  5. Crollo record anche di Glencore (oltre che di Volkswagen, ben più sotto i riflettori ora dopo lo scandalo emissioni truccate) e di molti miners

    Mining shares including Glencore Plc led a slump in European equities as metals prices tumbled on fears that an economic slowdown in China, the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials, is deepening.

    Glencore fell as much as 10 percent to a record 107 pence in London trading.

    Anglo American Plc, Antofagasta Plc and ArcelorMittal dropped more than 6 percent, dragging the regional benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index lower.

    KAZ Minerals Plc plunged almost 18 percent, the most since January, to a record low.

    "Until China demand and emerging-market currencies find a floor, it will remain challenging to put an absolute floor on commodity prices," Credit Suisse Group AG analysts led by Liam Fitzpatrick wrote in a note Tuesday.

    The bank cut its price estimates for large diversified miners including Glencore and BHP Billiton Ltd., which said on Tuesday it’s planning to sell hybrid securities to help refinance near-term liabilities.

    Stainless steel producer Outokumpu Oyj sank as much as 16 percent after saying third-quarter delivery volumes may be 10 percent lower than the previous quarter. (...)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-22/mining-shares-lead-stock-losses-as-glencore-slides-to-record-low

    RispondiElimina