Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

giovedì 3 settembre 2015

Faber: Le azioni delle compagnie minerarie cadranno di meno rispetto al resto dell'azionario



Ennesimo video di Marc Faber da Chang Mai (Thailandia del nord). Qui consiglia fra l'altro azioni di compagnie minerarie (non dico che saliranno ma almeno scenderanno meno delle altre, dice) .. e fa un curioso ragionamento sul Dollaro di HK. Mi par di ricordare un sacco di gente che parlava di rivalutazione dell'HKD in caso di abbandono del peg .. Faber invece dice di shortarlo (al minuto 4:00 circa) "perché sicuramente non verra' fatto rivalutare". Se i cinesi lasceranno svalutare ancora un po' lo Yuan si verra' a creare pressione su HK, nella sua borsa e nell'immobiliare. Il governo potrebbe intervenire e svalutare anche l'HKD .. e Faber finisce dicendo "quindi hai potenziale di salita senza rischio di discesa" (?) 


In effetti, mi sono guardato un pochino la storia dell'HKD su Wiki


(...) Il 18 maggio 2005, in aggiunta al limite inferiore garantito, venne fissato anche un nuovo limite superiore garantito per il dollaro di Hong Kong a 7,75 HKD = 1 USD. Il limite inferiore fu abbassato da 7,80 a 7,85 in cinque settimane, di 100 pip ogni settimana. La Hong Kong Monetary Authority ha affermato che tale manovra aveva l'obiettivo di restringere il divario tra i tassi di interesse di Hong Kong e quelli degli Stati Uniti. Un ulteriore scopo della fissazione di una banda di oscillazione entro la quale lasciar fluttuare il dollaro di Hong Kong, è quello di evitare che la tale valuta venga utilizzata come strumento per manovre speculative su una rivalutazione del renminbi. 
La Legge Fondamentale di Hong Kong e la Dichiarazione Congiunta Sino-Britannica stabiliscono che Hong Kong mantiene piena autonomia rispetto all'emissione di valuta. A Hong Kong la valuta è emessa dal governo e da tre banche locali sotto la supervisione della banca centrale locale de facto, la Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Le banconote sono stampate dalla Hong Kong Note Printing Limited. Il dollaro di Hong Kong è ampiamente accettato nelle regioni meridionali della Cina continentale e a Macao, così come in alcuni centri commerciali a Singapore. 
Una banca può emettere un dollaro di Hong Kong solo se ha depositi in dollari statunitensi di valore equivalente. Il sistema dell'aggancio valutario assicura che l'intera base monetaria di Hong Kong sia coperta da dollari USA Le risorse per questa copertura vengono mantenute nell'Exchange Fund di Hong Kong, che è una delle più grandi riserve ufficiali al mondo.
mica facile abbandonare il peg se per ogni HKD ci deve essere il relativo quantitativo di USD in magazzino, vi pare? Si, basta vendere gli USD... tutti?! ...

altri riassuntini dell'intervista in inglese:


On what central banks hath wrought...
I think that because of modern central banking and repeated interventions with monetary policy, in other words, with QE, all around the world by central banks there is no safe asset anymore. When I grew up in the '50s it was safe to put your money in the bank on deposit. The yields were low, but it was safe.

But nowadays, you don't know what will happen next in terms of purchasing power of money. What we know is that it's going down.
On the idiocy of QE...
in my humble book of economics, wealth is being created through, essentially, a mixture of capital spending, and land and labor. And if these three production factors are used efficiently, it then creates a prosperous society, as America became prosperous from its humble beginnings in 1800, or thereabout, to the 1960s, '70s. But it's ludicrous to believe that you will create prosperity in a system by printing money. That is economic sophism at its best.
On the causes of iunequality...
unfortunately the money that was made in U.S. stocks wasn't distributed evenly. And we have precise statistics, by the way published by the Federal Reserve, who actually benefited from the stock market boom post-2009. This is not even one percent of the population. It's 0.01 percent. They took the bulk.

And the majority of Americans, roughly 50 percent, they don't own any shares anyway. And in other countries, 90 percent of the population do not own any shares. So the printing of money has a very limited impact on creating wealth.
On China's lies... and its commodity contagion...
I indicated on this program already a year ago, the Chinese economy was decelerating already then. It's just that the fund managers didn't want to accept it.

And now it's obvious that the Chinese economy is growing at nowhere near what the Ministry of Truth is publishing in China, but more likely either no growth at all or maybe around two percent, but no more than that.

So that has a huge impact on commodity prices, and in turn it has a huge impact on the economies of all the raw material producers around the world from Latin America, to Australasia, Russia, Middle East, Africa and so forth. And these countries then with falling commodity prices have less money to buy, also less money to buy American goods.
On Asian currency devaluation... and a Chinese economic collapse...
Yes. These countries just followed the example of what Mr. Draghi and Kuroda tried to achieve with lowering the value of their currencies, which is actually to create a depression in real incomes and a contraction of world GDP in dollar terms, and a contraction of world trade in dollar terms, which is of course negative for economic growth around the world.

Well, I mean, we have to put the achievements of China and also of President Xi in the context of what China was 20, 30 years ago, and what it is today. And it's a remarkable change. Now will China have a very serious setback? And don't forget, the U.S. after 1800 had numerous financial crises, and depressions, and the Civil War, and went through World War I, and through the depression years, and World War II and so forth. And the country continued to grow.

I think China is, from a cyclical point of view now, in a very serious downturn, serious. And from a secular point of view, I think there is still tremendous growth opportunity in China in the long run. But, as I said, cyclically I think they're going to have a tough time
On where to invest...
I would rather focus on precious metals, gold, silver, platinum because they do not depend on the industrial demand as much as base metals, as industrial commodities.

If I had to turn anywhere, where, as you say, the opportunity for large capital gains exists, and the downside risk is in my opinion, limited, it would be the mining sector, specifically precious metals, mining companies, in other words, gold shares.

I would buy mining stocks. I am not saying they will go up, but I think they will go down less than a lot of other shares. 
And by the way, if you ask me about relative value, I think emerging markets are not yet cheap, cheap, but I think the return expectation I would have over the next seven to 10 years by investing in emerging markets would be much higher than, say, in U.S. stocks. The U.S. market is overhyped and is expensive in terms of valuations from a historical perspective. Emerging markets are no longer terribly expensive.

Carino fra l'altro come NON mette anche l'argento fra i base metals, i metalli "industriali".

1 commento:

  1. Ora miners in preziosi, GDX e GDXJ tutti tornati vicinissimo ai minimi del secolo di qualche settimana fa ... fate votis se vale la pena comprare, aspettare che cadano ancora di più o farne proprio a meno

    RispondiElimina