Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

lunedì 7 settembre 2015

Durden: Glencore capitola e cerca disperatamente di evitare il default


QUI i Tylers ora gongolano per tutti i soldi che hanno fatto shortando Glencore (cioe' andando lunghi sui CDS sulla company), uno dei colossi mondiali del settore minerario generalista (metalli di base come ferro, zinco, nichel .. metalli preziosi, potash, petrolio, carbone, zolfo.. quelle compagnie che producono un po' di tutto) e che probabilmente faranno ancora nel prossimo futuro. 



La situazione e' precipitata e Glencore si e' messa disperatamente a cercare di ridurre il suo debito vendendo azioni, tagliando i dividendi, chiudendo miniere di rame (400.000 tonnellate in meno per la produzione annuale mondiale), tagliando le spese di Capex, i suoi dipendenti e tutte cose. 




I Tylers danno il default rimandato, con 'sta mossa, di 6/9 mesi (GL! Degluttisco e apro gli occhi impaurito: ho un po' di azioni di altre compagnie minerarie generaliste, l'australiana BHP Billiton e la brasiliana Vale ... paaaauuuura!) 


Considering that following the copper mining halt, GLEN's cash flow will tumble for the foreseeable future (or at least until the company decides the plan was flawed in a world in which all its competitors will now flood the market with even more production, eating away at Glencore's market share), what Glencore has really done is buy itself about 6 months in EBITDA in the form of outside funding between the $2.5 billion capital raise and the $2 billion in (assumed) asset sales.
In other words, Glencore's plan is simply a bet that the Chinese demand slump - which recall is the primary culprit behind all of Glencore's troubles - will be resolved in 6-9 months. It has done so at the expense of liquidating its most marketable assets, diluting shareholders, and ending shareholder-friendly activities. 
To be sure, GLEN CDS has improved substantially on the news, tighter by some 106 bps to 339bps, as an imminent default has just been pushed back by 6-9 months; this however merely reinforces our thesis and allows all those who missed the initial blow out in GLEN credit default swaps to put the trade on... at levels not seen since about a month ago. 
Because as a result of today's asset-stripping and equity-raising activity, Glencore is now a that much better levered bet on China's economy in a broad sense, and copper pricing in a narrow one. In fact, with every passing week that neither China's economy rebound nor copper reverses recent losses, expect GLEN CDS to accelerate its widening once again, and overtake its recent multi-year high level of 445 bps in very short notice.

Nessun commento:

Posta un commento