Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

lunedì 14 settembre 2015

Citigroup: Ora il nostro scenario base per il 2016 e' recessione globale


Anche Citigroup (la "Umbrella Corporation") e' ottimista ed ora ha deciso che il suo scenario base per il 2016 e' una bella recessione globale (in particolare dovuta a Cina e Mercati Emergenti e che colpira' più  di quanto non abbia già  fatto quei paesi).. rispetto al "Global Financial Meltdown" della Daiwa e' comunque smaccato ottimismo

  • Any global recession is likely to originate in emerging markets with China in particular at risk of a hard landing
  • If the global economy slides into a recession of moderate depth and duration during 2016, it will most likely be dragged down by slow growth in a number of key emerging markets, and especially in China. We see such a scenario as increasingly likely. Indeed, we consider China to be at high and rapidly rising risk of a cyclical hard landing.
  • There has been a long history in China of the official GDP data understating true GDP during a boom and overstating it during a slowdown. Citi’s own best prediction of ‘true’ real GDP growth for 2015 is 4% or less. Other activity indices overwhelmingly suggest an economy in which the growth of industrial production and capital expenditure is slowing rapidly.
  • Recession in China and other EMs would likely slow DM growth too Should China enter a recession, with Russia and Brazil already in recession, we believe that many other EMs will follow, driven in part by the effects of China’s downturn on the demand for their exports and, for the commodity exporters, on commodity prices. We also consider it likely that, should the EMs enter recession territory, the advanced economies or developed markets (DMs) will not have enough resilience, either spontaneous or policy-driven, to prevent a global slowdown and recession. The large DMs may not experience recessions themselves but will likely grow more slowly; possibly more slowly than potential, and almost certainly more slowly than expected.
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