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giovedì 27 agosto 2015

La Cina svaluta volontariamente ... o sta invece solo cercando di rallentare la svalutazione dello Yuan?


Ma che succede con lo Yuan? Credo che molti abbiano pensato e pensino che i cinesi hanno svalutato la propria divisa. Currency Wars, no? 

Beh, pare che invece sia proprio il contrario, le autorità cinesi si starebbero dando da fare come matte per evitare che lo Yuan si svaluti troppo in fretta

E come lo fanno? Buttando sul mercato (magari via Belgio come abbiamo visto in passato) un po' delle loro colossali riserve di dollari, nella forma di UST, Treasuries USA, debito degli Stati Uniti insomma. 

Si parla di più di 100 miliardi di dollari nelle sole ultime settimane. Da un articolo di Bloomberg poi si impara che le autorità cinesi lo starebbero facendo tenendosi in contatto con quelle USA, insomma, non si starebbero muovendo aggressivamente ma "di comune accordo", cercando il "concerto" con la Fed (nello spirito di collaborazione fra banche centrali della potente BIS di Basilea) 



Il meccanismo sarebbe questo: i cinesi vendono UST e coi dollari cash che ne ricavano comprano Yuan per cercare di tenerlo su nel cambio con l'USD.

Per lo Yuan si parla di una potenziale svalutazione del 20% che prima o poi ci dovra' essere

L'altro giorno avevo salvato velocemente questo scambio fra lettori di Zero Hedge che, per chi sa l'inglese, puo' magari essere chiarificante:

Zero Hedge - Devaluation Stunner: China Has Dumped $100 Billion In Treasurys In The Past Two Weeks
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/25/2015



knukles's pictureknukles
Vote up! 15
Vote down! -1

Wait a sec.
If China sells Treasuries, then they get dollars.  If they sell dollars in the 4X market and buy .... er.... Yuan?  Strengthen the Yuan?!!?!!?!!?!!?
What am I missing?
If China were selling Yuan and buying dollars to devalue the Yuan, then they'd need a parking spot for the dollars bought against the Yuan sales, not vice versa.  And that means buying treasuries or other USD denominated stuff.

What am I missing here?
Why do they want to raise dollars to sell?  To buy what on the other side?  No, they don't want to sell dollars they want to buy them against Yuan to devalue the Yuan, if dollars are what's being used in the Yuan devaluation intervention..


Unless they're buying something other than Yuan, like uh .... lemme guess..... maybe something Mrs K likes? 
Somethings wrong with this picture, folks



UncleChopChop's pictureUncleChopChop
Vote up! 13
Vote down! 0
 
the US treasuries they own are *already* denominated in dollars, so they don't need to 'sell dollars' to effect the trade. think of it more as they are converting their US$ denominated treasury notes into US$ denominated currency, which they are then using to buy CNY to defend the fix.
and they arent doing this to devalue the CNY.. theyre doing it to support the new, lower, CNY fix which the market doesnt believe is the last stop. 


knukles's pictureknukles
Vote up! 4
Vote down! 0
 
OK, so if they're defending the fix, means that they're strengthening the Yuan v USD.
That's my point.
The whole "problem" is a weakening Yuan, not a strong "Yuan"
A strong Yuan is a retreat from the global currency devaluation war, a shrinking of the Yuan money supply.  I think not what's being done or desired, no?



UncleChopChop's pictureUncleChopChop
Vote up! 9
Vote down! 0
 
agreed, that the problem IS a weaker yuan (putting aside all the details/inter-relationships that i suspect we're largely in agreement on anyway).. but the problem of weaker yuan is itself a reflection of the truer weakness of the chinese economy..  china's moves are not to strengthen the yuan, but to soften the downtrend in what would otherwise be a crash to devalue it.. so their question is: do they want it to devalue overnight down 20% as dictated by the market? or do they want to gradually reset lower piecemeal, maintaining some semblance of the illusion that theyre in control. it seems that for now, theyre opting for the latter, but at a high cost... needing to defend each new lower fixing, becuase its STILL not NEARLY low enough. 
at this stage, it seems near a fair accompli that the yuan will continue lower.. the only question is: does china use up it's foreriegn reserves (UST) to defend it in such a way as to soften the fall, or do they step-back and pull a single BIG reval (down 10 or 20%). i suspec that's whats being debated right now (among other things) in beijing or wherever.. is it worth it to spend all these reserves only to soften and postpone the inevitable? which will then leave them with a STILL lower CNY (down 20% or whatever) but ALSO depleted reserves? or do they take the 'initiaitve' and sooner-than-later announce an 'official' reval, lose some face a la BOE/soros days, but still sit on all those reserves.

smells like just such an opportunity for the global-macro guys (like soros with the BOE) to pile on in whatever ways they can to force china to reval bigger and sooner rather than later. 


Vedi anche:

Zero Hedge - Is China Quietly Targeting A 20% Devaluation?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/25/201


E soprattutto il post "riassuntivo" che e' ora in evidenza su Zero Hedge:

Zero Hedge - It's Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/27/2015



e come ricordano di aver detto qui sopra i Tylers:

"one of the catalysts for the EM outflows is the looming Fed hike which, when taken together with the above, means that if the FOMC raises rates, they will almost surely accelerate the pressure on EM, triggering further FX reserve drawdowns (i.e. UST dumping), resulting in substantial upward pressure on yields and prompting an immediate policy reversal and perhaps even QE4." 

Se la Fed alza davvero i tassi la pressione sui mercati emergenti sara' ancora maggiore e non solo la Cina ma un po' tutti gli Emergenti potrebbero buttare sul mercato colossali quantità' di Debito USA per tirar su i Dollari necessari per tentare di proteggere le proprie divise usando appunto i dollari appena tirati su per comprare le proprie valute. 

Un po' come se il rialzo dei tassi della Fed fosse il grilletto stesso che scatenerà' il prossimo QE, il QE4, ormai saremmo al quarto (o il quinto se consideri anche l'Operation Twist)


3 commenti:

  1. I cinesi dicono che la volatilita' nei mercati c'entra poco con i tassi di cambio dello Yuan ma piuttosto con il tanto propagandato ed imminente rialzo dei tassi della Fed dopo così tanti anni di ZIRP/NIRP.

    Ma son cinesi e comunisti quindi mentono :)

    "China's exchange rate reform had nothing to do with the global stock market volatility, it was mainly due to the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy move," Yao said. "We were wronged."


    China Exclaims "We Were Wronged" - Demands Fed Delay Rate Hike, Reiterates Blame For Market Rout
    by Tyler Durden on 08/27/2015

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-27/pboc-demands-fed-delay-rate-hike-reiterates-blame-market-rout-we-were-wronged

    RispondiElimina
  2. bah....

    brutta bestia i sistemi dinamici complessi non lineari e assolutamente non compresi/conosciuti/modellizzati completamente

    forse ste testediminchia di masters-of-universe tirano davvero a campare,
    a non far schiantar tutto stasera
    e domani si vedrà

    buona foltuna compagno cin ciun cian

    RispondiElimina
  3. anche il Brasile ufficialmente in recessione

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/no-recovery-you-brazil-officially-enters-recession-goldman-calls-numbers-disquieting

    RispondiElimina