Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

giovedì 27 agosto 2015

Black si compra azioni Shell

Simon Black ci racconta qui che è cresciuto in una famiglia texana assillata dall'arrivare a pagare le bollette .. e che per una volta si compra delle azioni. Qui spiega perchè Shell.

Alla fine anche le compagnie petrolifere sono miners e come i miners sono state bastonate abbondantemente ultimamente. Secondo Simon Shell sarebbe abbastanza solida da non uscire troppo malconcia (o defunta) da questa palude delle quotazioni delle commodities

(...) There are plenty of profitable, well-managed companies out there. But they’re incredibly expensive. Twitter, for example, has a valuation of $17 billion. Yet it lost nearly $600 million last year.

Netflix manages to grind out a profit; but the company is valued at more than 200 times its earnings.

AirBnB is a private company. Yet its value is at least $25 billion even though it doesn’t own a scrap of real estate or turn a profit.

These all strike me as extremely expensive. And ludicrous.

But it’s unfortunately the norm these days.

Most financial assets are in major bubbles, whether it’s real estate (yes US housing is at that point again), stocks, bonds, private equity, etc.

So it’s very difficult for anyone with middle class values to invest… unless you expand your thinking to the whole world.

There are pockets of value out there if you look hard enough– like mining companies and developing markets.

Let me give you an example of something that I bought recently, and talk you through my thought process. As a caveat, I should tell you that I generally dislike stocks.

Stock markets are a rigged game designed to extract wealth from the little guy and put it in the pockets of investment banks and high frequency traders.

So for me to be interested, there better be some serious value on the table.

Royal Dutch Shell, one of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, is a good example.

Thanks to the slide in oil prices down to $40 (and perhaps lower), Shell’s stock price has been hammered.  So the company is trading right now at the value of its net tangible assets.  In other words, by buying Shell stock, I’m purchasing every asset the company owns at COST.

Yet on top of that, they pay a 7% dividend yield.

In real estate, it’s like being able to purchase a beautiful house in the best part of town at a price that barely meets the cost of construction.

And on top of that, there’s built-in rental income that starts putting money in your pocket right away.

This is a solid deal in my mind, especially for a company that has a long-term history of consistently growing its dividend yield.

(By the way, I can reinvest the dividends that they pay me into more shares, so I’ll be continually adding to my position over time.)

The added benefit is that Shell is not a US company.

I bought the stock overseas (I’ll explain why next week) and paid in British pounds.

So I could make money off the dividend. Or if the stock price goes up. Or if oil prices go up. Or if the pound appreciates against the dollar.

That’s one of the primary benefits of investing internationally: there are a LOT of different ways to make money.

And it makes a ton of sense to do this now that the dollar is at a 10+ year high against nearly every major currency out there.

(Again, developing markets are looking especially cheap, and I also bought into some of them as well, including Russian and Colombia.)

To be clear, I’m not recommending that you follow me into this.

It’s entirely possible that Shell’s stock gets cheaper. In fact, I’m expecting it. I also expect it will stay cheap for a very long time.

I just have the willingness to wait, because I know that it’s hard to lose when you buy profitable assets so cheap. Plus, Shell has seen worse in its history.

During World War I, for example, German forces wiped out over 20% of Shell’s production capacity.

So I’m confident they’ll be able to weather $40 oil without collapsing.

2 commenti:

  1. Mining Rout Costs Glencore More Than its Peers
    The company said last week it will not cut dividend, despite the slump in commodity prices.


    Europe’s biggest miners, having lost 23 percent of their stock market value this year, bore the brunt of this week’s heavy sell-off amid concern about Chinese growth. Glencore is the worst of the bunch, with its stock trading at the biggest discount to its closest peers in the past two years, along with highest projected dividend yield.

    Glencore currently trades at a 12 percent price-to-earnings discount to its major peers, compared with an average premium of 11 percent in the past two years. That's the biggest discount the stock has been at, as this chart shows. ...

  2. Le compagnie petrolifere hanno più di mezzo trilione di dollari di debiti (550 mld) da ripagare nei prossimi 5 anni

    Just over half a trillion dollars: that's how much cash oil industry companies will need to repay in maturing debt over the next 5 years.

    Specifically, according to BMI Research cited by Bloomberg, there is $72 billion in oil-related debt maturing this year, $85 billion in 2016 and $129 billion in 2017, and a total of $550 billion in bonds and loans through 2020. ...