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giovedì 30 luglio 2015

Williams: il nuovo report GFMS si dimentica larga parte della domanda cinese d'oro


Lawrence Williams commenta le antemprime del GFMS Gold Survey relativo al 2° trimestre 2015. Il report è sicuramente autorevole, hanno un eccellente team di analisti a Londra e in giro per il mondo ma resta sempre nebuloso come facciano, appunto per le loro ottime qualità e fonti, a continuare a sottostimare grandemente la domanda cinese, valutandola essenzialmente come import da Hong Kong mentre i numeri grossi sono all'SGE, lo Shanghai Gold Exchange e pure gli import da USA e Svizzera, in netto aumento negli ultimi anni, pare vengano bellamente tralasciati ...


MineWeb - GFMS curates egg report
Major London precious metals consultancy GFMS has come up with a very detailed post-Q2 gold report, but we would argue some points with it.
Lawrie Williams | 29 July 2015
The report notes that, according to its researchers, almost all major physical gold markets suffered in the second quarter as retail investment (demand for bars and coins) fell another 12% year-on-year and is now some 63% below the Q2 2013 peak, while in the largest consuming sector, jewellery, production declined by 6% year-on-year while consumption was down by 9%

This was in spite of a 7.5% fall in average US dollar gold prices – which have fallen further since.

Secondo il nuovo report la domanda d'oro mondiale è la più debole dal 2009, con un calo del 12% della domanda di lingotti e monete rispetto ad un anno fa ed un calo del 63% rispetto al picco del 2013. Anche la domanda da parte del settore giojelliero sarebbe in calo del 6% rispetto ad un anno fa.

China, as a statement that Chinese buyers stayed away from gold does seem to fly in the face of the published record gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) during the latest quarter, and the first half of the year as a whole.
Indeed, the ever seemingly increasing divergence between the SGE figures and the analysts’ estimates is becoming ever harder to explain, although GFMS does take a stab at it.
The latest survey thus puts this down to cash-strapped Chinese jewellery fabricators having to offload their inventories at attractive discounts, either to their competitors or directly to smelters. They then refine the gold pieces into bars and eventually this will flow back to the SGE, helping to inflate SGE its turnover by comparison with physical offtake. Whether there is concrete evidence of this, we don’t know.
secondo il survey GFMS i numeri alti dello SGE sarebbero dovuti a giojellieri che rivendono l'oro dei loro magazzini, addirittura rifondendoli di pacca. ...
if one looks at the GFMS data, in terms of Chinese gold imports it still seems to draw heavily on the Hong Kong net exports to mainland China.
But the report seemingly totally ignores the now indisputable fact, borne out by official Swiss and U.S. gold export data, that a substantial amount of China’s gold imports are bypassing Hong Kong altogether.
Switzerland is probably the biggest single exporter of gold to China and in 2014 some 37% was sent directly to the Chinese mainland. If anything, this proportion has further increased this year.
The latest figure from the Swiss Customs & Excise Department is that for gold export figures for June this year, 44% of exports to China + Hong Kong, went directly to the mainland without first being landed in Hong Kong
Go back a couple of years and virtually all Swiss gold exports to China were via Hong Kong.
The GFMS section on Chinese imports and demand does not seem to take account of this at all, only drawing comparisons on a yearly basis for the Hong Kong net export figure.
True, Hong Kong exports to the mainland may well be down 15% on the year as the GFMS analysis suggests, but some of this fall will be due to a significant, and seemingly growing, volume of this gold flowing directly into the Chinese mainland as the Swiss figures show.
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