Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

venerdì 31 luglio 2015

Hunt: A voi questa cosa pare casuale?

Non ho capito bene che intenda l'autore di questo pezzo riportato dai Tylers, secondo me neanche lui ha le idee chiare, però la grafica qui sopra di Dollar Index (sopra) e Prezzo del Petrolio WTI (sotto) qualcosa dice, eccome.

Alla faccia di tutte le teorie sulla produzione petrolifera sovrabbondante e non tagliata dei sauditi, ecc.. tutto è partito un annetto fa quando si è cominciato a parlare di rialzo dei tassi della Fed? ...

Here are two Bloomberg charts that show what I mean. On the top is a 5-year chart of DXY – the trade-weighted dollar index. On the bottom is a 5-year chart of WTI crude oil spot prices. Does this look like an accidental relationship to you? Can we just stop with all the hand-wringing about how there’s suddenly too much oil in the world, or how the Saudis are trying to crush US shale production, or any of the other spurious supply-and-demand “explanations” for why oil prices have collapsed? Seriously. Can we just stop?

Monetary policy divergence manifests itself first in currencies, because currencies aren’t an asset class at all, but a political construction that represents and symbolizes monetary policy. Then the divergence manifests itself in those asset classes, like commodities, that have no internal dynamics or cash flows and are thus only slightly removed in their construction and meaning from however they’re priced in this currency or that. From there the divergence spreads like a cancer (or like a cure for cancer, depending on your perspective) into commodity-sensitive real-world companies and national economies. Eventually – and this is the Big Point – the divergence spreads into everything, everywhere. Some things will go up, and some things will go down. But the days of ALL financial assets inflating in lock-step … the days of everything, everywhere going up together … that’s over.

For a lot of active investment managers, this is great news.

For a lot of politicians and central bankers – particularly the weaker ones, either in resources or in willpower (yes, I’m looking at you, Alexis Tsipras) – this is terrible news.

For investors? Well, it’s a mixed bag. Certainly it’s a more difficult bag, where so many of the learned behaviors of the past five years that worked so well in an environment of monetary policy coordination will fail miserably in an environment of monetary policy competition. But it beats getting a lobotomy. I think. We’ll see.

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