Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

giovedì 23 luglio 2015

EWI: Gold Price Hits a 5-Year Low. How to Time the Next MAJOR Bottom




Secondo quest'altro (Robert Prechter, April 2015 Elliott Wave Theorist) c'è da aspettare che le banche centrali si mettano a vendere oro ..


central bankers were selling their heads off at the final bottom in gold in 1999-2001. When the bull market started, they increased their sales, reaching a peak rate of selling in 2005. They continued to sell right into the deepest decline of the bull market, which occurred in 2008. Over the next two years, as gold took off again, they slackened their rate of selling and then edged toward becoming slight net buyers in 2010. Activity for 2009-2010 indicated a neutral stance for those years, as central-bank vaults sat depleted and gold continued to rise. Finally in 2011, the year of the top, they couldn't stand it anymore. 

They reversed course for the first time in well over a decade and started buying gold heavily, during the final rise to the highest gold prices ever. Silver reversed into a bear market in April that year. Gold finally peaked in September and crashed $400/oz. in a month. After gold's initial plunge, it rallied through most of 2012, and central banks, believing they were being offered bargains on the way to far higher prices, bought at an even faster rate. Perfectly mirroring odd-lotter behavior, they have continued to buy heavily all the way down.
 
In other words, in the year of the top central banks decided the long term trend was up, so they chased the market, and every down year since has looked to them like an opportunity to buy more gold at "bargain" prices.
When the bear market in gold approaches its end, central bankers will finally reverse the trend of their transactions and sell into the downtrend. When they do, it will signal the final price decline into the next major bottom.
...If you buy when central banks finally sell, you will probably succeed at investing in gold.

tutto QUI



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