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lunedì 1 giugno 2015

Come nascono gli Zombie

I Tyler, dopo aver richiamato un loro post su come i QE potrebbero essere, per assurdo che possa sembrare, i padri delle deflazioni che "tormentano" i paesi "sviluppati" (tradotto QUI), riportano un articolo del Wall Street Journal che pare confermare la loro visione:

Wall Street’s generous supply of funds to U.S. oil drillers helped create the American energy boom. Now that same access to easy money is keeping them going, despite oil prices that are languishing around $60 a barrel.

The flow of money into oil has allowed U.S. companies to avoid liquidity problems and kept American crude production from falling sharply…
Helped by a ready supply of money, the flow of oil from the U.S. could keep crude prices low for the remainder of 2015 and beyond…

Energy shares are lagging behind the overall stock market. Over the past year, the S&P 500 is up 9.6%, but energy stocks in the index are down 17.6%. Some investors, betting on an oil price rebound, regard energy stocks as a relative bargain.

“I’ve been surprised by the amount of money that has come into the sector” since oil prices started falling, said Paul Korus, chief financial officer of Cimarex Energy Co., a midsize energy company based in Denver.

Much of that stems from a fundamental belief that investors should buy now when oil prices are low, he says. “We all think there will be some sort of recovery, but we don’t know when it will recover and what it will recover to.”

Cimarex is one of several outfits to tap public markets by issuing more shares. In the first three months of 2015, U.S. listed companies issued $16.7 billion of new shares and convertible bonds, the highest level since 2010, according to Dealogic.

Most are using the cash to clean up their balance sheets. But Cimarex, which raised nearly $750 million in late May, plans on spending it to drill more wells in Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico. The company had cut its rig count to six from 20; plans now call for nearly 20 rigs to be drilling again by the end of the year.

Banks aren’t reining in oil company borrowing, at least not yet. Loan officers surveyed by the Federal Reserve in April said they expect an increase in energy companies unable to pay back their loans, and were preparing by restructuring agreements.

Many companies have other options. Goodrich Petroleum Corp., concerned that its line of credit would be reduced, obtained a $100 million “second-lien” debt deal at a relatively high 8% interest rate.
Insomma, così com'è stato un immenso fiume di credito fluito verso le compagnie petrolifere USA a pompare il boom energetico americano (vedi Shale), allo stesso modo ora anche ora è l'accesso a denaro facile che permette alle stesse compagnie di restare a galla e non fallire (per ora) nonostante i prezzi intorno a "solo" 60 dollari al barile.

E' Citybank (vedi QUI per capire quanto antiche sono le origini di questa banca) che ha tirato fuori un grafico sottotitolato appunto "Come nascono gli Zombie" (che qui sarebbero le compagnie dello Shale ma il discorso si può estendere ad un po' tutti i settori, come spiegato appunto QUI un mesetto fa):

Come andrà a finire? Secondo i Tylers
"Once the revolver raids start up again in October (when banks will once again assess credit lines to oil and gas producers) the defaults may be just around the corner.

Then comes the rush to the HY ETF exits at which point horrified fund managers seeking to unload the underlying bonds will discover that there’s no one home at dealer desks thanks to the post-crisis regulatory regime.

Trust us, this .. will not end well".

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