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lunedì 11 maggio 2015

Hebba: Cosa costa davvero estrare l'oro. La Goldcorp primo trimestre 2015 edition

Seeking Alpha - What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Goldcorp 2015 First Quarter Edition
By Hebba Investment - May 10, 2015

Observations for Investors

As is obvious from the results, Goldcorp's first quarter was not a particularly good quarter in terms of costs as they rose on a core and core non-tax basis. Core costs for the first quarter (which includes taxes), rose to $1470 per gold-equivalent ounce - extremely high for a gold producer that has been consistently in the lower cost-tier of gold mining companies.

Even when we focus on Goldcorp's core non-tax costs, which exclude write-downs and taxes, we find them jumping to $1308 per gold-equivalent ounce in Q1FY15. This is the highest the company has seen in quite some time and shows that cost rises are not simply a function of a higher effective tax rate.

On a comparative basis, Goldcorp is the first company we have published and so cost comparisons are going to be limited until we publish other all-in costs.
But on a more positive note for Goldcorp investors, the company does maintain its guidance and states the following:
The Company today reconfirmed 2015 production guidance of between 3.3 and 3.6 million gold ounces at all-in sustaining costs of between $875 and $950 per gold ounce, driven primarily by new contributions from Cerro Negro and Éléonore.
Gold production is expected to increase over the course of 2015 as mining continues into the higher-grade portions of the Peñasco pit at Peñasquito and as both Cerro Negro and Éléonore ramp-up through the year.
So the 713,400 ounces of attributable production should increase significantly moving forward, which gives the company ample production to bring down total core and core non-tax costs through the rest of the year. Additionally, we do note the statement that production will be coming from the higher grade portions of Penasco and Penasquito - and higher grade production is one of the most effectively ways to bring down costs on a per-ounce basis.

While the quarter was poor and the stock was appropriately punished, looking forward we think there are enough positive factors for investors to hang their hat on and hold their positions in Goldcorp

While we're not predicting any future blow-out quarters for the company, we certainly think that the first quarter is an aberration for the company and the company should return to its low-cost ways through the rest of 2015.

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