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domenica 15 febbraio 2015

Bloomberg: L'America si sta scuotendo di dosso la sua dipendenza dal petrolio


Una bella (graficamente) e secondo me ingannevole infografica interattiva su Stati Uniti e Petrolio (che sul giornale della finanza americano tengono in evidenza da mesi ormai), Goldman parla di prezzi ancora più bassi anche se Bloomberg e Zero Hedge (per esempio) presentano i numeri della crisi occupazionale (e finanziaria?) del settore petrolifero mondiale.

Bloomberg - America is shaking off its addiction to Oil
11 dicembre 2014


I Millennials usano di più i mezzi pubblici rispetto ai BabyBoomers che stanno andando in pensione, le auto fanno ora molte più miglia con lo stessa benza .. il grafico più divertente è quello sulle mitiche esportazioni di petrolio Made in USA: guardate i valori in ordinata (l'asse verticale dei valori) ...

... e Goldman Sachs prevede prezzi anche più bassi per la poltiglia nera:
Zero Hedge - Goldman Warns Over-Supply Means Oil Prices Will Be Much Lower
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/14/2015 - Via Goldman Sachs' Sven Jari Stehn

We use statistical techniques to explore the drivers of the sharp drop in oil prices since last summer. The idea behind our approach is to use the behavior of oil and equity prices to disentangle demand from supply shifts. Intuitively, we would expect that positive demand shocks should push both equity and oil prices up, while positive supply shocks should push equities up and oil prices down.

Our model suggests that the vast majority of the decline in oil prices until November 2014 was driven by perceptions of improved supply. The continued sell-off in December and January was driven by perceptions of both improving supply and slowing demand. The latest rebound in oil - which started in late January - appears to be driven by a mix of demand and supply.

(...) The main conclusion from our analysis is intuitive and consistent with our commodities team's views, who have argued that the decline in oil has been driven by an oversupplied global oil market. As a result, our commodities team expects that the new equilibrium price of oil will likely be much lower than over the past decade. Also, our framework appears reasonably robust to changes in the input variables.
Nessun discorso sul Peak Oil fra queste grandi banche e i loro giornali ... mah! E bellissima sta cosa che se oro e argento crollano i miners crollano anche di più mentre se crolla il petrolio le azioni delle multinazionali petrolifere dovrebbero addirittura salire di prezzo (!) .. in effetti se vedi, Shell è passata da 80 a quasi 60, Exxon Mobil da 100 a "solo" 90 ...

Intanto però anche il giornale dell'ex sindaco di Jew York è costretto a fare articoli sulla crisi occupazionale nel settore petrolifero in USA:
Bloomberg - Global Oil Layoffs Exceed 100,000
by Bradley Olson - February 12, 2015

(...) Engineers were in high demand in 2012, when oil prices exceeded $100 a barrel, making the move across the world a no-brainer. Within two years, though, oil plunged to less than half the 2012 price and Zappa lost her job as a safety analyst. Now she’s worried her husband, who also works in the commodities industry, could also lose his job.

Such anxieties are rising at a time when the number of energy jobs cut globally have climbed well above 100,000 as once-bustling oil hubs in Scotland, Australia and Brazil, among other countries, empty out, according to Swift Worldwide Resources, a staffing firm with offices across the world.

(...) “The issue is one of uncertainty, of whether there’s a job out there,” Read said in a phone interview. “For seven years, there was a shortage of staff. Now for the first time, there’s a surplus. Currently almost no one is hiring.”
.. nel mondo si sono già persi 100.000 posti di lavoro legati all'estrazione del merdone nero a causa del dimezzamento dei prezzi ...
Bloomberg - The Number of U.S. Oil Rigs Continues to Tumble
by Tom Randall - February 13, 2015

U.S. oil rigs continued to get hammered this week despite still-rising levels of production.

Drillers idled 98 rigs, dropping the number to 1,358 and marking the 10th consecutive decline, Baker Hughes reported on Friday. The total U.S. rig count is down 30 percent since October, an unprecedented retreat.

The collapse in oil prices has wiped out more than 100,000 oil jobs worldwide. That hasn’t shown up yet in U.S. jobs numbers, and American oil production is at its highest seasonal levels in decades. Still, there’s mounting anecdotal evidence of an industry in distress, and the rig counts appear to be in free fall.
.. nonostante tutto la produzione USA pare ancora in aumento ... ma si sta riducendo drasticamente il numero di nuove perforazioni fatte (indovina che vuol dire per il futuro)

secondo Bloomberg sta cosa non ha ancora toccato i posti di lavoro in USA e l'ultimo, ottimo non farmer payrolls pare che non contasse perdite di lavoro nel settore petrolifero anche se:
Zero Hedge - "Houston, You Have A Problem" - Texas Is Headed For A Recession Due To Oil Crash, JPM Warns
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/21/2014
.. e anche, per esempio:
Zero Hedge - "It's A Huge Crisis" - The UK Oil Industry Is "Close To Collapse"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/19/2014

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