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domenica 15 febbraio 2015

Barrick Gold - Buy high, sell low?


Analisi positiva sul colosso Barrick Gold (il più grosso produttore mondiale d'oro .. le compagnie cinesi non si sa che producono e come!) in risposta ad una negativa da parte di un altro analista. L'articolo su Seeking Alpha riporta interessanti dati sugli AISC (All-In Sustaining Costs) di alcune miniere della Barrick e della Newmont

Seeking Alpha - Barrick Gold .. Buy High, Sell Low?
By SomaBull - Feb. 13, 2015
Yes, Barrick has dug itself into a huge financial hole, but .. Barrick can survive this even if gold prices remain flat.
As of September 30, 2014, they had about $2.7 billion of cash and $13,0 billion of debt.
The company did a tremendous job of restructuring all of their debt obligations in 2013. Thanks to many smart moves, they repaid all that they borrowed from their credit facilities and significantly reduced their near-term debt maturities.
They have less than $1 billion of debt due between now and the end of 2017, and the current cash on the balance sheet could cover almost all of the debt owed between now and 2020.
(...) Even if gold stayed in the $1,250-$1,300 level over the next 7 years, the company would be generating enough operating cash flow to continually pay down this debt.
(...) Barrick AISC (all-in sustaining costs) guidance for 2014 is only $900 per ounce and ... 6.1-6.4 million ounces of gold production
(...) Its core group of mines can produce almost 4 million ounces of gold per year at an AISC of around $750 per ounce.
L'autore parla di una antica storia, la possibile fusione fra n°1 e n°2, Barrick e Newmont, per ottimizzare le risorse che i due colossi hanno in giro per il mondo. L'autore ipotizza una Barrick/Newmont Nevada. Il grafico qui ci interessa per i costi AISC (All In Sustained Cost) che presenta

Barrick/Newmont Nevada - Gold Production

2013 Production 2013 AISC Reserves
Goldstrike 0,892 million oz 901 $ per oz 10.70 million oz
Cortez 1,340 million oz 433 $ per oz 11,00 million oz
Carlin 1,000 million oz 895 $ per oz 15.70 million oz
Turquoise Ridge 0,223 million oz 927 $ per oz 6.80 million oz
Phoenix 0,250 million oz 895 $ per oz 5.70 million oz
Twin Creeks 0,450 million oz 895 $ per oz 2.40 million oz
Round Mountain (50%) 0,156 million oz 1.330 $ per oz 0,92 million oz
Bald Mountain 0,094 million oz 2.138 $ per oz 2.50 million oz
Ruby Hill 0,091 million oz 887 $ per oz 0,14 million oz




Total 4.500 million oz 800 $ per oz 55.90 million oz

.. fuori dal Nevada la Barrick ha queste minere principali:

Pueblo Viejo (60%) 0,650 million oz 560 $ per oz ???? million oz
Lagunas Norte 0,580 million oz 605 $ per oz ???? million oz
Veladero 0,700 million oz 800 $ per oz ???? million oz

i punti interrogativi qua sono miei!

Parlando del famoso disastro della miniera di Pascua-Lama l'autore dice:
Barrick had spent about $6 billion on the project when they announced they were halting construction. They would need to spend about $2.5 billion more to complete it. Some would argue that Pascua-Lama won't ever go into production.
(...) The estimated operating mine life at Pascua-Lama is 25+ years, with average annual production of about 600,000-700,000 ounces of gold and 20-25 million ounces of silver. Due to the silver being treated as a by-product credit, the total cash cost is only $200-$250 per ounce. At $1,200 gold that is about $650 million in pre-tax cash flow per year.
Unfortunately, at that gold price, it will take 12-13 years just to recoup the cap-ex costs, and the NPV (5%) would only be about $8 billion. So Barrick would just about break even on the project. But it's better than having a $6 billion loss. Obviously, much higher gold prices will greatly improve the return, and at $1,700, Barrick would well into the green on Pascua-Lama.
.. cioè, hanno già speso 6 mld e ne servono altri 2,5 per far partire la produzione, se capisco bene. POI avrebbe una vita di 25 anni di produzione e 6-700mila once d'oro e 20-25 mln di once d'Ag. E considerando gli introiti da tutto quell'oro si avrebbe un cash cost dell'oro di solo 200-250 dollari l'oncia (mei cojons!) ... come sappiamo il cash cost non è troppo affidabile però. All'attuale prezzo dell'oro gli servirebbero 12-13 anni per rientrare delle spese!? ... ma l'ottimista autore dice che già a 1700 l'oncia si vedrebbero degli attivi ... mah!

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