Ovvero: Pararsi un po' il cul* in questo pazzo pazzo mondo di carte filigranate, iperfinanza globalizzata e picco delle risorse

venerdì 16 gennaio 2015

Instant super-CHF !


Con l'euro in discesa da mesi e ora ai minimi col dollaro da quasi un decennio, a 1,15 e spicci, l'SNB, la Banca Centrale Svizzera abbandona a sorpresa il peg del Franco con l'euro... e scatta l'iperbolica, fulminea salita della moneta della confederatio a segnare un picco velocissimo, per poi riabbassarsi un po. E scattano anche le file dei frontalieri francesi, italiani e tedeschi a cambiare i loro franchi superrivalutati del 30% in eurini, sai mai che la pacchia passa ..

Zero Hedge - Moscow... Or Geneva?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2015

The 28-year-old hospital orderly was one of many across Switzerland rushing to cash in on a soaring Swiss franc.

Minutes after a shock announcement from the Swiss central bank that it was abandoning the minimum rate of 1.20 francs against the euro, the safe haven Swiss currency strengthened almost 30 percent to 0.8517 against the common European currency before easing back to 1.0421.

"I heard the news this morning. I'm so happy!" Vanessa, who refused to give her last name, told AFP outside of one of many mobbed exchange offices in Geneva.

She has reason to be extatic: she is one of some 280,000 people working in Switzerland but living and paying bills in eurozone countries France, Germany or Italy.

These so-called "frontaliers", or border-crossers, are the biggest winners in Thursday's Swiss franc surge, seeing their incomes jump 30 percent in the blink of an eye.

Vanessa said she was contemplating "changing all of my Swiss franc savings into euros"...
.. peccato che..
Swiss business leaders called the central bank's decision a disaster, with banking giant UBS saying it would lead to a drop of 5 billion francs worth of exports and knock 0.7 percentage points off overall output growth.

"I am at a loss for words," Swatch group's boss Nick Hayek told news agency ATS. "What the SNB has sparked here is a tsunami."

The Swiss watchmaking giant was the biggest loser on a Swiss stock exchange bathed in red Thursday, with its shares sinking 16.4 percent.

The Swiss exchange's main SMI index lost nearly nine percent Thursday.
e come nota Funny King:
Rischio Calcolato - Il Paradosso dell’Oro in Questo Folle Mondo di Carta Straccia
Di FunnyKing , il 15 gennaio 2015

Vorrei iniziare una riflessione con voi:

Fino a ieri la BNS espandeva il suo bilancio, ovvero creava CHF per comprare EURO e peggare a 1.20 il Franco.

Direte voi, evviva meno carta straccia in giro ma male per l’oro una banca centrale smette di aumentare una base monetaria.

E invece no.

Il contrario, ovviamente questo avviene perchè per un investitore svizzero l’oro è diventato più conveniente di un 10-12% di botto e dunque via agli acquisti. Poi c’è la questione del tasso di interesse negativo.

Se ci pensate per un investitore istituzionale Svizzero l’oro è quasi ai minimi da 5 anni. E ha un rendimento implicito positivo, cioè i costi di custodia dell’oro (circa -0.30/-0.50% annui) sono più convenienti del tasso ufficiale di sconto

Ah siamo in un modo folle, e credetemi questa roba la pagheremo tutti (svizzeri compresi) carissima.

Se avete qualche idea discutiamone, tanto vale tutto nel territorio inesplorato.
La versione di Dan Norcini è che qualcuno ha detto ai banchieri centrali svizzeri che Draghi sta per lanciare il QE della BCE (eeeeesatttto!):
Trader Dan's Market Views - Swiss National Bank signaling ECB Bond buying coming
Thursday, January 15, 2015

My take on this surprise is this - there was no reason for the SNB to do such a thing UNLESS they knew that a big bond buying program was coming from the ECB next week. Even though their interest rates were already negative, they were spending enormous amounts of their reserves in maintaining that 1.2000 peg. If the ECB were to go ahead on the bond buying/QE, the Euro would weaken ( at least that is what the market is expecting it to do and thus the reason for the strong downtrend in the common currency). A weaker Euro would exert even more pressure on the Euro/Swissie cross requiring even more ammunition to be wasted by the SNB.

Thus they threw in the towel and surrendered.

Gold certainly does like this!

The oil markets have gone beserk as a result as well.

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