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venerdì 26 dicembre 2014

Dopo le martellate Il rublo fa un rally del 34% a seguito del piu' grosso intervento in 5 anni

Zero Hedge ci mostra come il rublo si e' significativamente ripreso dopo il clamoroso attacco dei giorni scorsi e dopo il piu' grosso intervento da parte della banca centrale russa a comprare rubli, scendendo da un picco di 80 rubli per dollaro a dei piu' normali (si fa per dire) 55 rubli per dollaro.
Since the Russian Ruble troughed at almost 80 RUB/USD, it has rallied an impressive 34% erasing most of the dramatic devaluation of December. However, as The CBR just announced, this 'strength' came at a price. Russia burned through $15.7 billion of reserves in the week ending Dec 19th - the biggest percentage weekly drop in reserves since Jan 2009, leaving reserves below $400 billion (still a significant amount) for the first time since Aug 2009.

riserve, ora, a 398 mld di usd

Avevo capito che stavano bruciando la gran parte delle proprie riserve leggendo Bassi l'altro giorno ma evidentemente capivo male, alla fine hanno usato "solo" 15-16 miliardini di usd per comprare rubli .. comunque vedetevi l'ultimo post di Bassi QUI, su come sono fatti i 400 mld di riserve russe e quello dei Tylers QUI, che finisce cosi':

Still it's not like $400 billion is going to disappear tomorrow - for those proclaiming Russia's imminent default. (CDS imply a mere 5% probability of default over the next year based on 25% recovery assumptions)

Russia al fallimento?  Oro in vendita?  Non pare, hanno ancora circa 400 mld di usd e i CDS implicano una possibilita'di default del 5% nel prossimo anno

Un pajo di commenti su ZH:

The real question is, did George Soros still have a short position on the Russian ruble when the ruble rallied?

Theway I look at it Russia just earned 50% on its investment. Think of it this way ... Russia bought a whole lot of stuff with a high value Ruble. The Ruble then fell 50%. Russia just bought the Rubles back at half price. Splendid deal.

Comunque non sara' certo una passeggiata per i russi. Da Reuters:

The economy is slowing sharply as Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis deter foreign investment and spur capital flight, and as a slump in oil prices severely reduces Russia's export revenues and pummels the rouble.

The government has taken steps to support key banks and address the deepening currency crisis in the past week, including a sharp and unexpected interest rate hike, but analysts are pessimistic on the outlook for both the economy and the rouble.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told journalists on Friday the economy could shrink by 4 percent in 2015, its first contraction since 2009, if oil prices averaged their current level of $60 a barrel.

Siluanov also said the country would run a budget deficit of over 3 percent next year if the oil price did not rise.

"Next year we will, without doubt, have to bring the Reserve Fund into play," he said, referring to one of Russia's two rainy-day funds intended to support the economy at times of crisis.

Crude prices have almost halved from their June peak amid a global glut and a decision by producer group OPEC not to cut output. Saudi Arabia said on Friday it was prepared to withstand a prolonged period of low prices.

"We need to have our budget break even at $70 per barrel by 2017," said Siluanov.

Russia's government imposed informal capital controls this week, including orders to large oil and gas exporters Gazprom (GAZP.MM) and Rosneft (ROSN.MM) to sell some of their dollar revenues in a bid to shore up the rouble.

Russians have kept a wary eye on the exchange rate since the collapse of the Soviet Union, when hyper-inflation wiped out their savings over several years in the early 1990s.

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